Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?
Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.
ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.
Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?
Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.
ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.
It’s a deliberate and careful escalation. A hostile act over a NATO country but also no one killed. NATO needs to show resolve, which for me would be providing more air defence to Ukraine and supporting Poland defend any more incursions.
Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?
Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.
ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.
It’s a deliberate and careful escalation. A hostile act over a NATO country but also no one killed. NATO needs to show resolve, which for me would be providing more air defence to Ukraine and supporting Poland defend any more incursions.
Exactly, they need to have NATO jets and other air defences, anywhere on the border, ready to shoot down anything that comes over.
Love Trump's reaction - meaningless statement from Putin's bro. We need to develop a Patriot equivalent in Europe. And we need to stop buying F-35s.
Test to see what NATO's top systems are like? test to see how NATO's responds? Straight up response to Poland increasing security on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad?
Either way, Russia has escalated (and potentially provided a Casus Belli), so it's Poland's turn. The best response would be putting even more pressure on Hungary to be less obstructive on... most things; and to increase support for Ukraine - appropriate would be buying /ordering a shit-tonne of anti-drone measures from Ukraine as a form of aid.
ETA: Christ, I've even seen someone who's opinions I respect theorise that it might even be an attempt to draw NATO into the war officially - better to lose to an equal, and historic foe; than lose to a lesser, barely-state who were supposed to roll over and welcome their betters.
It’s a deliberate and careful escalation. A hostile act over a NATO country but also no one killed. NATO needs to show resolve, which for me would be providing more air defence to Ukraine and supporting Poland defend any more incursions.
NATO seems completely unprepared for this drone warfare at scale. The cost of these drones are so much less than the NATO response, the approach we saw to combat this probe is not a cost effective or sustainable strategy. I'm sure Putin will gladly escalate without fear.
Currently they're practicing conquering the Suwalki gap, ready for their Baltic offensive once they've achieved their goals in Ukraine in a few years' time.
You have to wonder what Putin is hoping to gain by this. Yes, America is distracted with its descent into fascism and will not be a forceful lead in NATO, but Russia are struggling with fighting Ukraine at present and really cannot afford a second front, especially one that is as well-armed and angry as the Poles are, and doubly so when mutual defence treaties would likely bring the EU in as well. It's not exactly riskless sabre-rattling either, cause the political mood in Poland is pretty pissed-off, given their general kinship and relations with Ukraine, and they are not going to need too much of an invitation to step outside at the current time.
You have to wonder what Putin is hoping to gain by this. Yes, America is distracted with its descent into fascism and will not be a forceful lead in NATO, but Russia are struggling with fighting Ukraine at present and really cannot afford a second front, especially one that is as well-armed and angry as the Poles are, and doubly so when mutual defence treaties would likely bring the EU in as well. It's not exactly riskless sabre-rattling either, cause the political mood in Poland is pretty pissed-off, given their general kinship and relations with Ukraine, and they are not going to need too much of an invitation to step outside at the current time.
Puja
Putin is presumably trying to get us to divert resources that would otherwise be in Ukraine to guard other parts of the border. But agreed, the last thing he'd want is another front with NATO as the opposition, so he's taking a chance.
In some ways this is a good thing because we badly need to be thinking about what would happen if someone attacked us suddenly with, like 10,000 drones (why stop there? 100,000 . . . 1m??).
Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2025 10:48 am
by paddy no 11
Fucking czech douche bags, they'd deserve another russian colonisation if that's what they've voted for
Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...
Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2025 12:22 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 05, 2025 10:48 am
Fucking czech douche bags, they'd deserve another russian colonisation if that's what they've voted for
You have to wonder what Putin is hoping to gain by this. Yes, America is distracted with its descent into fascism and will not be a forceful lead in NATO, but Russia are struggling with fighting Ukraine at present and really cannot afford a second front, especially one that is as well-armed and angry as the Poles are, and doubly so when mutual defence treaties would likely bring the EU in as well. It's not exactly riskless sabre-rattling either, cause the political mood in Poland is pretty pissed-off, given their general kinship and relations with Ukraine, and they are not going to need too much of an invitation to step outside at the current time.
Puja
Putin is presumably trying to get us to divert resources that would otherwise be in Ukraine to guard other parts of the border. But agreed, the last thing he'd want is another front with NATO as the opposition, so he's taking a chance.
In some ways this is a good thing because we badly need to be thinking about what would happen if someone attacked us suddenly with, like 10,000 drones (why stop there? 100,000 . . . 1m??).
For the past 3 years, many western leaders have been treading carefully around Putin to avoid any sign of provocation. Its possible that Putin believes that he can cow Nato populations and force them to reduce support for Ukraine. Especially if Trump provides half hearted, meaningless messaging to Nato partners.
With the liberation of two more villages, Sukhetske and Kucheriv Yar, announced by the Ukrainian military over the weekend, the operation to clear the major Russian breach of Ukrainian lines near the city of Dobropillia is all but over.