RugbyRebels

This is an interesting one

jared_7 wrote:This is an interesting one

I've seen this and other such argument, and I don't like it.

It simply continues the same "us against them" theme that caused this bloody mess in the first place.

at least you'll be shot of Cameron?

Yeah, I guess its dangerous to get caught up in left-right definitions.

My original point was Brexit is scarier not for actually exiting, but why we are doing so. Its worrying to me that half the people I see on the street (well maybe not because I'm in London) genuinely believe immigrants are the root of societies ills. I suspect they are going to be gravely disappointed in whats about to happen... Can't see much getting better for the "working" class any time soon.[/quote]

Are you saying that everyone who voted leave did so because of immigration? That's quite a leap.

onlynameleft wrote:Yeah, I guess its dangerous to get caught up in left-right definitions.

My original point was Brexit is scarier not for actually exiting, but why we are doing so. Its worrying to me that half the people I see on the street (well maybe not because I'm in London) genuinely believe immigrants are the root of societies ills. I suspect they are going to be gravely disappointed in whats about to happen... Can't see much getting better for the "working" class any time soon.

Are you saying that everyone who voted leave did so because of immigration? That's quite a leap.[/quote]


Is there any actual metric to be had that may indicate that? Was it a simple "yes" or "no" question being voted on?

Stom wrote:I've seen this and other such argument, and I don't like it.

It simply continues the same "us against them" theme that caused this bloody mess in the first place.

I don't mind it because its interesting and true. Across a number of prominent countries at the moment we are seeing a huge disconnect between the voting preferences of the baby boomers and older and the voting preferences of people under 45. At the moment most of these countries have an ageing population so the balance of power tips older, but there is a genuine feeling amongst younger voters that the older generations had it lucky and they are now getting absolutely shafted (anti-establishment, whatever you want to call it etc...).

Its not bad, its not good, but when you have a large portion of the population feeling disenfranchised unfortunately there can be overreactions. There will be a tipping point here.

onlynameleft wrote:Yeah, I guess its dangerous to get caught up in left-right definitions.

My original point was Brexit is scarier not for actually exiting, but why we are doing so. Its worrying to me that half the people I see on the street (well maybe not because I'm in London) genuinely believe immigrants are the root of societies ills. I suspect they are going to be gravely disappointed in whats about to happen... Can't see much getting better for the "working" class any time soon.

Are you saying that everyone who voted leave did so because of immigration? That's quite a leap.

The majority, unfortunately yes. I posted that previous visual analysing social media posts on leave, obviously this will have its own skews so it may be a leap but I feel that immigration was probably the key issue in the argument. Here is yesterdays final poll which has immigration as the number one issue, and there are many more along similar lines I've seen but can't be bothered digging out.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics ... 78996.html

IMO its more to what extent was immigration the key issue rather than whether it was or not.

jared_7 wrote:

Stom wrote:I've seen this and other such argument, and I don't like it.

It simply continues the same "us against them" theme that caused this bloody mess in the first place.

I don't mind it because its interesting and true. Across a number of prominent countries at the moment we are seeing a huge disconnect between the voting preferences of the baby boomers and older and the voting preferences of people under 45. At the moment most of these countries have an ageing population so the balance of power tips older, but there is a genuine feeling amongst younger voters that the older generations had it lucky and they are now getting absolutely shafted (anti-establishment, whatever you want to call it etc...).

Its not bad, its not good, but when you have a large portion of the population feeling disenfranchised unfortunately there can be overreactions. There will be a tipping point here.

onlynameleft wrote:Yeah, I guess its dangerous to get caught up in left-right definitions.

My original point was Brexit is scarier not for actually exiting, but why we are doing so. Its worrying to me that half the people I see on the street (well maybe not because I'm in London) genuinely believe immigrants are the root of societies ills. I suspect they are going to be gravely disappointed in whats about to happen... Can't see much getting better for the "working" class any time soon.

Are you saying that everyone who voted leave did so because of immigration? That's quite a leap.

The majority, unfortunately yes. I posted that previous visual analysing social media posts on leave, obviously this will have its own skews so it may be a leap but I feel that immigration was probably the key issue in the argument. Here is yesterdays final poll which has immigration as the number one issue, and there are many more along similar lines I've seen but can't be bothered digging out.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics ... 78996.html

IMO its more to what extent was immigration the key issue rather than whether it was or not.

OK I did post a response to morepork which dealt with much of this as well but equally I can't be bothered to repost it. See if it turns up.

Sandydragon wrote:

Billyfish wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:I wonder how long other European countries can deny their citizens a vote?

The right wing everywhere shall leap upon the opportunity. Denmark next.

The left in Spain could be tempted as well.

You know nothing. Podemos is pro-EU.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Billyfish wrote:
The right wing everywhere shall leap upon the opportunity. Denmark next.

The left in Spain could be tempted as well.

You know nothing. Podemos is pro-EU.

I wonder how long that will last if Spain needs bailout and we have Greece MkII. Just a thought.

jared_7 wrote:

Stom wrote:I've seen this and other such argument, and I don't like it.

It simply continues the same "us against them" theme that caused this bloody mess in the first place.

I don't mind it because its interesting and true. Across a number of prominent countries at the moment we are seeing a huge disconnect between the voting preferences of the baby boomers and older and the voting preferences of people under 45. At the moment most of these countries have an ageing population so the balance of power tips older, but there is a genuine feeling amongst younger voters that the older generations had it lucky and they are now getting absolutely shafted (anti-establishment, whatever you want to call it etc...).

Its not bad, its not good, but when you have a large portion of the population feeling disenfranchised unfortunately there can be overreactions. There will be a tipping point here.

onlynameleft wrote:Yeah, I guess its dangerous to get caught up in left-right definitions.

My original point was Brexit is scarier not for actually exiting, but why we are doing so. Its worrying to me that half the people I see on the street (well maybe not because I'm in London) genuinely believe immigrants are the root of societies ills. I suspect they are going to be gravely disappointed in whats about to happen... Can't see much getting better for the "working" class any time soon.

Are you saying that everyone who voted leave did so because of immigration? That's quite a leap.

The majority, unfortunately yes. I posted that previous visual analysing social media posts on leave, obviously this will have its own skews so it may be a leap but I feel that immigration was probably the key issue in the argument. Here is yesterdays final poll which has immigration as the number one issue, and there are many more along similar lines I've seen but can't be bothered digging out.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics ... 78996.html

IMO its more to what extent was immigration the key issue rather than whether it was or not.

Its an interesting issue. Ive heard more than a few people blame the Baby Boomers for many of the issues today, and certainly youth unemployment and underemployment is a major issue, albeit not as bad in the UK as elsewhere. Making older people work longer for their pensions obviously doesn't help.

But I wonder if the terms left and right have become a bit meaningless. Poorer people who vote both Tory and Labour have voted to leave, whilst those who are in more professional careers have generally voted to remain. Are the terms internationalist and localist more useful now, and if so are the likes of Labour missing a trick by banging on about old fashioned socialism when they could represent the localist votes and do well if they actually listened to the issues, rather than resort to the tried and trusted?

Interesting, some politicians already commenting that the leave win wasn't that large and thus there needs to be time to debate what it actually means. I wonder how difficult Parliament will find it to essentially ratify the referendum decision; would they dare to hold back against the result of the referendum, even if it isn't legally binding?

jared_7 wrote:This is an interesting one

Based on a poll of less than 1700 people a week before the referendum.

People's views change as they get older. The same poll 30 years ago probably have given the same results, despite the now oldies being the then youngies.

bruce wrote:

jared_7 wrote:This is an interesting one

Based on a poll of less than 1700 people a week before the referendum.

People's views change as they get older. The same poll 30 years ago probably have given the same results, despite the now oldies being the then youngies.

Normally, you get more risk adverse as you get older. Perhaps older voters feel a bit let down by how the EU has changed from a trading block to this quasi super state. Younger voters might be less bothered as they have grown up with it.

It would be interesting to establish if younger voters who don't have a good number of qualifications were pro or anti-EU.

morepork wrote:at least you'll be shot of Cameron?

....all well and good.........but it'll be someone even more right wing to replace him.......

Jesus wept. Just seen Nigels good morning Britain interview. You guys are fucked.

Lol

Sandydragon wrote:

bruce wrote:

jared_7 wrote:This is an interesting one

Based on a poll of less than 1700 people a week before the referendum.

People's views change as they get older. The same poll 30 years ago probably have given the same results, despite the now oldies being the then youngies.

Normally, you get more risk adverse as you get older. Perhaps older voters feel a bit let down by how the EU has changed from a trading block to this quasi super state. Younger voters might be less bothered as they have grown up with it.

It would be interesting to establish if younger voters who don't have a good number of qualifications were pro or anti-EU.

I reckon there would be an almost direct correlation between voting in or out and newspaper readership. The young get their news from a much wider range of sources. The old get theirs from the Mail or the Telegraph or the Sun, etc.

We need press regulation.

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

bruce wrote:
Based on a poll of less than 1700 people a week before the referendum.

People's views change as they get older. The same poll 30 years ago probably have given the same results, despite the now oldies being the then youngies.

Normally, you get more risk adverse as you get older. Perhaps older voters feel a bit let down by how the EU has changed from a trading block to this quasi super state. Younger voters might be less bothered as they have grown up with it.

It would be interesting to establish if younger voters who don't have a good number of qualifications were pro or anti-EU.

I reckon there would be an almost direct correlation between voting in or out and newspaper readership. The young get their news from a much wider range of sources. The old get theirs from the Mail or the Telegraph or the Sun, etc.

We need press regulation.

You need a 2nd referendum.

Edit: Like a 'are you really really sure you want this' referendum.

Mellsblue wrote:

Banquo wrote:

canta_brian wrote: Sorry, you think this result went against the tide of media bias?

well quite..the media were pretty pro brexit on the whole, certainly mass circulation papers.

Except The Times, The Mirror, The Guardian and, I think, The I......

compare their circulation and impact to The Daily Telegraph, Daily Express, Daily Mail, The Sun............

Sandydragon wrote:Interesting, some politicians already commenting that the leave win wasn't that large and thus there needs to be time to debate what it actually means. I wonder how difficult Parliament will find it to essentially ratify the referendum decision; would they dare to hold back against the result of the referendum, even if it isn't legally binding?

I've been a bit surprised to see that 33.5m is 79% of the population. Fairly sure the UK has a population of over 65m.

What makes me smile is that Gove, Boris et al are exactly the guys who've been pushing so hard for the TTIP.
They aren't gonna be able to join that bonanza now.

Sandydragon wrote:Interesting, some politicians already commenting that the leave win wasn't that large and thus there needs to be time to debate what it actually means. I wonder how difficult Parliament will find it to essentially ratify the referendum decision; would they dare to hold back against the result of the referendum, even if it isn't legally binding?

kk67 wrote:I've been a bit surprised to see that 33.5m is 79% of the population. Fairly sure the UK has a population of over 65m.

What makes me smile is that Gove, Boris et al are exactly the guys who've been pushing so hard for the TTIP.
They aren't gonna be able to join that bonanza now. Gun, foot, trigger.

kk67 wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Interesting, some politicians already commenting that the leave win wasn't that large and thus there needs to be time to debate what it actually means. I wonder how difficult Parliament will find it to essentially ratify the referendum decision; would they dare to hold back against the result of the referendum, even if it isn't legally binding?

I've been a bit surprised to see that 33.5m is 79% of the population. Fairly sure the UK has a population of over 65m.

What makes me smile is that Gove, Boris et al are exactly the guys who've been pushing so hard for the TTIP.
They aren't gonna be able to join that bonanza now.

79% of voting age population.

Oh, and Britain will definitely get a Trade Deal with the US; they have signed up every single country bar China, Brazil, Russia, India (i.e.; the growing powerhouses who threaten the US's position at the top of the heap). Its a final push to engrain their stranglehold on the world, and they will want Britain to be part of it.

jared_7 wrote:

Billyfish wrote:Facebook page is unreadable. Full of hysteria and hyperbole. Another consequence of ramping up the fear I guess. Especially Londoners. Some very sensible people with some outlandish gushings. I blame Diana Spencer.

The thing is, its not so much whats happened but why its happened that is scary. At the start of this process I believed getting out of the neoliberal corporate grip of the EU was a good move, regaining sovereignty for future governments to properly use economics to grow the country.

However, if anything that should be a goal for the left. Instead, Leave has been hijacked by the extreme right, for reasons that are diabolical and saddening. This word cloud of Leave posts on social media highlights it nicely:



Immigrants are not the reason for the economy being the way it is, its the government elected by the exact same people who are likely to have voted to leave. Scapegoating and racism is not the answer, and now there is a very real possibility both the Tories and Labour will take a huge jump to the right to pander to this movement.

The big surprise swing, which caused the result is a huge chunk of the traditional Labour base, who feel cut off from the rest of the country in effect. The North-east's vote to leave was massively more than expected. The Leave constituency is not a homogenous mass.

Sandydragon wrote:

jared_7 wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:
`im not sure that you will find too many Blairites in the old South Wales mining areas, yet they voted to leave. Immigration is not just a right wing concern, that includes the old left and the Blairite version.

Surely the old left went through the transition from Governments focussing on full employment, to using labour and the unemployed as a deliberate tool to reduce inflation and keep wages low to control the costs of production?

Surely they would know that immigrants have nothing to do with jobs or housing, ideology does?

I disagree. I live in Stoke on Trent, a very safe Labur seat. I grew up in Newport, a Labour heartland. Both have a degree of immigration which statistically isn't that significant, yet anti-immigration is rife. The BNP have had local electoral success in Stoke because of disillusioned Labour voters who are fed up of their party not listening to them. I note your comments about ideology, but that isn't something many labour supporters are worried about - they are concerned at how many immigrants are moving in and (allegedly) taking their jobs. That may not match up with left ideology, but its the fact on the ground, as witnessed by the results from last night.

D'accord, the intellectual masturbation going on about the left and the right is meaningless to these traditional labour voters, not from Islington, and struggling to find or keep a job.

jared_7 wrote:

kk67 wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Interesting, some politicians already commenting that the leave win wasn't that large and thus there needs to be time to debate what it actually means. I wonder how difficult Parliament will find it to essentially ratify the referendum decision; would they dare to hold back against the result of the referendum, even if it isn't legally binding?

I've been a bit surprised to see that 33.5m is 79% of the population. Fairly sure the UK has a population of over 65m.

What makes me smile is that Gove, Boris et al are exactly the guys who've been pushing so hard for the TTIP.
They aren't gonna be able to join that bonanza now.

79% of voting age population.

Oh, and Britain will definitely get a Trade Deal with the US; they have signed up every single country bar China, Brazil, Russia, India (i.e.; the growing powerhouses who threaten the US's position at the top of the heap). Its a final push to engrain their stranglehold on the world, and they will want Britain to be part of it.

A different deal. The TTIP is an EU agreement. Any deal will now have to be renegotiated.
Frankly, I am pleased to be shot of it. Always looked like Bilderburg nonsense to me, although this is clearly a guess as they wouldn't tell us what was in the deal.

kk67 wrote:

jared_7 wrote:

kk67 wrote:
I've been a bit surprised to see that 33.5m is 79% of the population. Fairly sure the UK has a population of over 65m.

What makes me smile is that Gove, Boris et al are exactly the guys who've been pushing so hard for the TTIP.
They aren't gonna be able to join that bonanza now.

79% of voting age population.

Oh, and Britain will definitely get a Trade Deal with the US; they have signed up every single country bar China, Brazil, Russia, India (i.e.; the growing powerhouses who threaten the US's position at the top of the heap). Its a final push to engrain their stranglehold on the world, and they will want Britain to be part of it.

A different deal. The TTIP is an EU agreement. Any deal will now have to be renegotiated.
Frankly, I am pleased to be shot of it. Always looked like Bilderburg nonsense to me, although this is clearly a guess as they wouldn't tell us what was in the deal.

I have a feeling you will see it again, maybe not until it's too late....