RugbyRebels

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 9:19 am This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 9:19 am This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

Puja wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 1:43 pm

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 9:19 am This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

"Bond prices rise, yields fall, making it cheaper to refinance," is a complete misunderstanding of what bonds are, isn't it? They're being wrong with such confidence that it's making me doubt myself, but as far as I understand it, "yields" doesn't mean the amount of interest that the government has to pay on the bond, it's the interest as a fraction of the purchase price. So when "yields fall", it doesn't mean it's less expensive for the government, it means the investor is getting less bang for their buck because the price is higher.

The only way to make it cheaper for the government to refinance is by reducing interest rates, which is certainly possible by fucking the stock market and the economy, but there's also the issue that screwing the economy is going to make fewer people want to buy into America from the outside (especially since the dollar's movement is limited because it's used as a reserve currency, so the market wouldn't devalue the currency by much, as it would with £ or € which would make outside investment more attractive). So that would drive bond values down as there's less demand.

Incidentally, I have now discovered that, if you start searching for "How much of the US government debt is..." on google, as I just did when looking for how much was bonds, it helpfully tries to finish the sentence with "...owned by Jews". So that's great. That's not worrying at all. I'm not alarmed by what MAGA's response to a stock-market meltdown would be, in the slightest.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 4:27 pm

Puja wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 1:43 pm

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Mar 14, 2025 9:19 am This must be reassuring. More 4D chess from Trump I supppose.

"Bond prices rise, yields fall, making it cheaper to refinance," is a complete misunderstanding of what bonds are, isn't it? They're being wrong with such confidence that it's making me doubt myself, but as far as I understand it, "yields" doesn't mean the amount of interest that the government has to pay on the bond, it's the interest as a fraction of the purchase price. So when "yields fall", it doesn't mean it's less expensive for the government, it means the investor is getting less bang for their buck because the price is higher.

The only way to make it cheaper for the government to refinance is by reducing interest rates, which is certainly possible by fucking the stock market and the economy, but there's also the issue that screwing the economy is going to make fewer people want to buy into America from the outside (especially since the dollar's movement is limited because it's used as a reserve currency, so the market wouldn't devalue the currency by much, as it would with £ or € which would make outside investment more attractive). So that would drive bond values down as there's less demand.

Incidentally, I have now discovered that, if you start searching for "How much of the US government debt is..." on google, as I just did when looking for how much was bonds, it helpfully tries to finish the sentence with "...owned by Jews". So that's great. That's not worrying at all. I'm not alarmed by what MAGA's response to a stock-market meltdown would be, in the slightest.

Puja

Sorry Puja, you're not correct on this. Yields are the interest on a bond as a fraction of the price, but this is a useful measure because the interest rate (coupon) on a bond is fixed (once the bond is issued). From this point only the price can change implying a yield (interest rate/current price). The yield is important because it's the rate of interest the market currently thinks is fair for a bond of a certain maturity. Thus, if a new bond is issued, its interest rate needs to be approximately equal to the current yield, otherwise it won't sell.

So yields are a good guide to the cost of government finance.

The problem here is the assumption that shares and bonds are always negatively correlated. It's not a bad rule of thumb that when the stock market looks too risky, money flees to safer places like bonds. But a country being badly run will make both shares and bonds of that country more risky. Money will then be more likely to flee to commodities or other financial assets overseas.

Trump is busy adding a 'moron premium' to the required interest rate for US assets.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 18, 2025 4:09 pm Trump's government willfully disobey Judges' orders, twice. The USA is lawless.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ed-lebanon

morepork wrote: ↑Wed Mar 19, 2025 1:40 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 18, 2025 4:09 pm Trump's government willfully disobey Judges' orders, twice. The USA is lawless.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ed-lebanon

No it isn't. The executive branch is off the leash right now, but will be appropriately tethered in time. Civil rights advocacy on the ground here is off the scale (it kind of has to be, just as it had to be pre-1964). Don't underestimate the capacity of public service here to respond to civil rights violation. Some of us will get beaten up in that fight, but we shall overcome.

DONALD TRUMP: It will ensure the USA continues to dominate the skies. We have given in order for a lot. We cannot tell you the price because it would give away some of the technology and sizable planes—a good-sized plane. This contract also represents an historic investment in our defense industrial base, helping keep America at the cutting edge of technology. Our allies are calling constantly—they want to buy them also. Certain allies, we will be selling them, perhaps, a toned-down version. We like to tone it down about 10%, which probably makes sense, because maybe some of them are not our allies, right?

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 8:08 am https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... llies.html

DONALD TRUMP: It will ensure the USA continues to dominate the skies. We have given in order for a lot. We cannot tell you the price because it would give away some of the technology and sizable planes—a good-sized plane. This contract also represents an historic investment in our defense industrial base, helping keep America at the cutting edge of technology. Our allies are calling constantly—they want to buy them also. Certain allies, we will be selling them, perhaps, a toned-down version. We like to tone it down about 10%, which probably makes sense, because maybe some of them are not our allies, right?

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Mar 27, 2025 8:04 am Apparently, this is how you go about arresting small female students who think that genocide is bad - if you're the secret police
https://bsky.app/profile/pplscitycounci ... ccrxc6nk2v

morepork wrote: ↑Wed Mar 26, 2025 11:02 pm Good job USandA. You've got the idiots you voted for in charge, and how well that is going. Fuck you for shitting on a generation of social and scientific innovation in the course of a few months. Fuck you Troglodytes and may you reap what you sow. I've given everything I have to science, health, community, and camaraderie, but I'm all out of fucks to give. I hope the real Americans that were here before you will laugh at your pathetic mewlings in years to come and you do harm only to yourselves. Fuck right off.


Peace

morepork wrote: ↑Thu Mar 27, 2025 7:07 pmWave your self-righteous agenda at disease and let’s compare data you utter thundercunts.

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Mar 27, 2025 7:14 pm

morepork wrote: ↑Thu Mar 27, 2025 7:07 pmWave your self-righteous agenda at disease and let’s compare data you utter thundercunts.

Like this, you mean?

Funding to fight measles outbreak in Texas hit by DOGE cuts


We feel your pain, we really do.
As a legal immigrant to the States - do what you need to do to keep safe - which probably means scrubbing any and all of your social media accounts - and start panning an exit strategy.

Or say "fuck it" and take a stand, accepting that unpleasant things may well happen.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Fri Mar 28, 2025 12:46 pm That’s a big call and one that Morepork needs to consider carefully.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Fri Mar 28, 2025 12:46 pm

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Mar 27, 2025 7:14 pm

morepork wrote: ↑Thu Mar 27, 2025 7:07 pmWave your self-righteous agenda at disease and let’s compare data you utter thundercunts.

Like this, you mean?

Funding to fight measles outbreak in Texas hit by DOGE cuts


We feel your pain, we really do.
As a legal immigrant to the States - do what you need to do to keep safe - which probably means scrubbing any and all of your social media accounts - and start panning an exit strategy.

Or say "fuck it" and take a stand, accepting that unpleasant things may well happen.

That’s a big call and one that Morepork needs to co wider carefully. This situation is disgraceful; the right to free speech should not be constrained in such a way.

Good luck to you Morepork.