Snap General Election called - The new UK Politics thread

[Which Tyler]

Interesting to see on the poll of polls, that Reform are losing and Conservative are gaining... since various defections from conservative to reform...

[Stom]

Interesting to see on the poll of polls, that Reform are losing and Conservative are gaining... since various defections from conservative to reform...

If the Tories manage to purge themselves of all the nutjobs via defections to Reform, they could become a credible party again.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Interesting to see on the poll of polls, that Reform are losing and Conservative are gaining... since various defections from conservative to reform...

If the Tories manage to purge themselves of all the nutjobs via defections to Reform, they could become a credible party again.

Badenoch next, then?

[Puja]

The Greens in 2nd place with a best-ever 19%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

I think this Gorton and Denton by-election could indeed be existential for Labour. If the Greens can take it, then they suddenly become not just a credible option, but the people to vote for if you want to stop Reform in an English left-leaning-constituency by-election. If that becomes normalised, then it's a very small step to take for them to become the people to vote for if you want to stop Reform in a General Election. And, if they're taking the left vote and the "Dear gods, not the right" vote, then what's actually left for Labour?

Could end up in a very weird situation where there is a Labour government that can keep power until 2029 and which has such a large majority that it's functionally untouchable and can pass anything it likes, yet has very little legitimate mandate because it's guaranteed to be utterly wiped out as soon as they go to the country. I suppose technically, they could have rebellions/defections/resignations to bring down their majority, but surely it's not possible for Labour to lose 168 MPs (and that would just remove their working majority, so it would probably take more than that to force an election if they decided to dig their heels in).

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

The Greens in 2nd place with a best-ever 19%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

I think this Gorton and Denton by-election could indeed be existential for Labour. If the Greens can take it, then they suddenly become not just a credible option, but the people to vote for if you want to stop Reform in an English left-leaning-constituency by-election. If that becomes normalised, then it's a very small step to take for them to become the people to vote for if you want to stop Reform in a General Election. And, if they're taking the left vote and the "Dear gods, not the right" vote, then what's actually left for Labour?

Could end up in a very weird situation where there is a Labour government that can keep power until 2029 and which has such a large majority that it's functionally untouchable and can pass anything it likes, yet has very little legitimate mandate because it's guaranteed to be utterly wiped out as soon as they go to the country. I suppose technically, they could have rebellions/defections/resignations to bring down their majority, but surely it's not possible for Labour to lose 168 MPs (and that would just remove their working majority, so it would probably take more than that to force an election if they decided to dig their heels in).

Puja

Just like the Tories after Truss. Earlier in the term though.

I don't think it's necessarily existential though. There is too much time and too many players in the game to be sure.

[Which Tyler]

Right, which one of you buggers was it?

Shellshocked: Hospital evacuated after doctors find unexploded WW1 bomb lodged in man's rectum
The 37mm brass-and-copper shell left the 24-year-old Frenchman “in a state of extreme discomfort"

[paddy no 11]

I see that Morgan mcsweeney travelled the well worn path of Ireland to English building sites in the late 90s before deciding you know what my next obvious move is to.......Israel.......and then basically running Britain to support a Palestinian genocide. Got to hand it to Israel they play the short, middle and long game

[Son of Mathonwy]

Peter Mandelson. The harm this corrupt right wing bastard has wreaked on the UK and the Labour party over the decades is immense but you'd like to think his disgraceful association with Epstein would have put him beyond the pale. Not so. Naturally the Spectator is happy to pay this best pal of child sex traffickers for his wisdom.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... and-stance

Oh look. The BBC and Laura Kuenssberg (who else?) are trying to rehabilitate Mandelson now.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... itics-live

What next, a third return from resignation in disgrace? Why not for this charmed, charmless man?

Okay. I think not even Mandelson can truly recover this time. Starmer may even be compelled to *actually* strip him of his peerage despite the grip Mandelson obviously has over Labour and his strong ties with McSweeney and Streeting.

Will the police and CPS prosecute this vile traitor for what looks like betrayal of the country and insider dealing? Hope so but still unlikely, I suspect. Mandelson will probably be allowed to skulk back to the shadows and continue his great work there.

Starmer has looked like a dead man walking for a while but this is his political death warrant. There's no recovering from this. He will cling on till he's forced to go (probably after the local elections), as will McSweeney. No doubt McSweeney will work behind the scenes to sacrifice Starmer so that Streeting can take over (and save McSweeney) but I think this will fail (because Streeting is so unpoplular). I think Rayner will take over.

[paddy no 11]

So Mcsweeney was spying on journalists from the guardian and the Times now

What a piece of work

[Son of Mathonwy]

So Mcsweeney was spying on journalists from the guardian and the Times now

What a piece of work

Yeah, and Josh Simons is another would-be Mandelson. Two little apprentices to the master there:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... osh-simons

[Which Tyler]

Well, that's one way to read the room, though possibly not the way I'd have chosen...
https://bsky.app/profile/robinince.bsky ... ba2jipb22k

[Son of Mathonwy]

Well, that's one way to read the room, though possibly not the way I'd have chosen...

Wow, I didn't think the Murdoch press would try to rehabilitate him quite that fast. Times readers, if you don't like cosy interviews with traitors to our country, cancel your subscriptions!

[Son of Mathonwy]

McSweeney's resigned. Whether that's the last of him, we shall see. I expect he'll hope to rise again, Mandelson-like, parasitically attached to Wes Streeting should he take up the top job. He may even continue to send Starmer instructions by email. How else will Starmer know what to do next?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... f-of-staff

Starmer next.

[Which Tyler]

Nope, Tim Allan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89kwj8kjy9o

When Starmer does take the hint, can he take Streeting down with him please?

[Puja]

Nope, Tim Allan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89kwj8kjy9o

Sounds like a home improvement to Number 10.

Kemi Badenoch enjoying being hypocritical about "Labour psychodrama". When even she's having fun at your expense, you know you've hit a low.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Mandelson. We've only seen his corrupt dealings with Epstein (plus the other things that got him sacked in the 90s). Imagine what other traitorous things he's done in his decades at the heart of the Labour party and the UK government which we'll never find out about. How many times has he sold us all out for personal gain? The harm he's done to the UK and the Labour party is immeasurable.

[Son of Mathonwy]

A reminder about Mandelson (and Brown):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rate-power

[Son of Mathonwy]

Clive Lewis on Mandelson, McSweeney and Labour:

https://x.com/labourlewis/status/2020528059527442452

[Son of Mathonwy]

Hilarious hypocrisy as journalists try to rewrite their own history of cosying up to Mandelson when 'we all knew' about his association with Epstein:

[Son of Mathonwy]

As Farage assembles his Tories in an attempt to look like a regime-in-waiting, every month Starmer clings on is a wasted month (for those of us who don't want a Trump tribute act supercharging austerity).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -reform-uk

[Puja]

As Farage assembles his Tories in an attempt to look like a regime-in-waiting, every month Starmer clings on is a wasted month (for those of us who don't want a Trump tribute act supercharging austerity).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -reform-uk

The problem is who would take over from him? Streeting's just as much in hock to the vested interests as Starmer, allied with being thoroughly unlikeable and less competent. Rayner hasn't shaken off the confected tax scandal yet, Burnham's not able to stand, Mahmood's the only person more likely to chase Reform right than Starmer, Miliband doesn't want it (and probably shouldn't have it anyway) - it's not like there's an obvious successor that's waiting in the wings. A bitter leadership contest strengthens Reform's hand as well, especially if it leads to a weak leader who might get ousted or forced into an early election - at least Starmer has the advantage of an iron fist on the party's mechanisms.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

As Farage assembles his Tories in an attempt to look like a regime-in-waiting, every month Starmer clings on is a wasted month (for those of us who don't want a Trump tribute act supercharging austerity).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -reform-uk

The problem is who would take over from him? Streeting's just as much in hock to the vested interests as Starmer, allied with being thoroughly unlikeable and less competent. Rayner hasn't shaken off the confected tax scandal yet, Burnham's not able to stand, Mahmood's the only person more likely to chase Reform right than Starmer, Miliband doesn't want it (and probably shouldn't have it anyway) - it's not like there's an obvious successor that's waiting in the wings. A bitter leadership contest strengthens Reform's hand as well, especially if it leads to a weak leader who might get ousted or forced into an early election - at least Starmer has the advantage of an iron fist on the party's mechanisms.

Puja

Unless by some miracle Clive Lewis could cobble together 80 supporters in the PLP, it has to be Rayner. Streeting won't get elected unless he's the only one in the ballot. Starmer won't let Burnham stand. Can't see Mahmood winning any vote. Milliband, probably not (although never underestimate the ambition of a politician).

Rayner is viable. Otherwise it's Starmer till when exactly? Time's a wasting. After a point it becomes impossible to salvage a situation like this and bring the change that was promised.

[Which Tyler]

The Andrew formerly known as Prince has been arrested - my best birthday present yet (mind, it's only got an impending migraine to compete with so far)

[Son of Mathonwy]

The Andrew formerly known as Prince has been arrested - my best birthday present yet (mind, it's only got an impending migraine to compete with so far)

Good stuff. More than I expected of the police although whether the CPS will have the balls to actually prosecute is another matter. And (I think) this is just about misconduct in office (ie enriching himself and others through his position) rather than any of the sex allegations.

NB re the sex allegations it's just like the utter bullshit over partygate where the police were present at the scene of the offence but did nothing about it. Andrew always had police bodyguards, at Epstein's island, at Epstein's NY pad. The police had to know but obviously did nothing because it was just the royals doing whatever they want to do.

[Son of Mathonwy]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... on-epstein