RugbyRebels

After all the talk of us trying to get into the top 4 last week we're now facing the prospect of falling to 9th just in time for the pools to be decided for the next RWC . (I stand corrected - the draw is next May)

As things stand it looks like Argentina, Wales, France and Scotland are fighting to avoid the 9th spot:

Position Teams Points
1 New Zealand 94.57
2 England 89.49
3 Australia 86.86
4 South Africa 84.85
5 Ireland 83.67
6 Argentina 81.46
7 Wales 80.97
8 France 80.75
9 Scotland 80.44
10 Fiji 75.49

There are too many variables to make detailed predictions here, what with all the matches to be played in November.
Clearly we MUST beat Japan (otherwise we'd lose ~2 ranking points... and all facking self-respect).
But IMO another victory is needed.
We need to find some form. At least we have a good record against Argentina.....

The World Cup draw is in May.

Numbers wrote:The World Cup draw is in May.

Thanks (I should research this stuff better!) - that gives us more time.

At least it feels like a good thing the draw'll be after the 6N, even if the ranking change due to the 6N is of course a zero sum game for the 6N teams.

A loss to Japan would still be near-fatal to our chances at the draw though. And a bad AI series for Argentina would be extremely helpful. Especially if it starts this weekend.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Numbers wrote:The World Cup draw is in May.

Thanks (I should research this stuff better!) - that gives us more time.

At least it feels like a good thing the draw'll be after the 6N, even if the ranking change due to the 6N is of course a zero sum game for the 6N teams.

A loss to Japan would still be near-fatal to our chances at the draw though. And a bad AI series for Argentina would be extremely helpful. Especially if it starts this weekend.

TBF they only changed the draw date after realising that it could end up with another group of death as it has always historically been in the autumn, our good 6 nations form should give us enough points to be in the top 8 easily.

Numbers wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Numbers wrote:The World Cup draw is in May.

Thanks (I should research this stuff better!) - that gives us more time.

At least it feels like a good thing the draw'll be after the 6N, even if the ranking change due to the 6N is of course a zero sum game for the 6N teams.

A loss to Japan would still be near-fatal to our chances at the draw though. And a bad AI series for Argentina would be extremely helpful. Especially if it starts this weekend.

TBF they only changed the draw date after realising that it could end up with another group of death as it has always historically been in the autumn, our good 6 nations form should give us enough points to be in the top 8 easily.

"Our good 6 nations form" Hmm...optimistic

Hooky wrote:

Numbers wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote: Thanks (I should research this stuff better!) - that gives us more time.

At least it feels like a good thing the draw'll be after the 6N, even if the ranking change due to the 6N is of course a zero sum game for the 6N teams.

A loss to Japan would still be near-fatal to our chances at the draw though. And a bad AI series for Argentina would be extremely helpful. Especially if it starts this weekend.

TBF they only changed the draw date after realising that it could end up with another group of death as it has always historically been in the autumn, our good 6 nations form should give us enough points to be in the top 8 easily.

"Our good 6 nations form" Hmm...optimistic

Not really, we have done better in the 6 nations than any other side in recent years, I would say more like realistic.

Numbers wrote:

Hooky wrote:

Numbers wrote:
TBF they only changed the draw date after realising that it could end up with another group of death as it has always historically been in the autumn, our good 6 nations form should give us enough points to be in the top 8 easily.

"Our good 6 nations form" Hmm...optimistic

Not really, we have done better in the 6 nations than any other side in recent years, I would say more like realistic.

I don't hold out much hope after last weekend at all. Factor in the strength of England and Ireland and it looks bleak to me.

Hooky wrote:

Numbers wrote:

Hooky wrote:
"Our good 6 nations form" Hmm...optimistic

Not really, we have done better in the 6 nations than any other side in recent years, I would say more like realistic.

I don't hold out much hope after last weekend at all. Factor in the strength of England and Ireland and it looks bleak to me.

We play both those teams at home this year, it's not all doom and gloom.

Numbers wrote:

Hooky wrote:

Numbers wrote:
Not really, we have done better in the 6 nations than any other side in recent years, I would say more like realistic.

I don't hold out much hope after last weekend at all. Factor in the strength of England and Ireland and it looks bleak to me.

We play both those teams at home this year, it's not all doom and gloom.

True. And anyway, in the 6N we only really need to outperform Scotland (and Italy) to stay in the top 8, so it's realistic.

Having seen the results this weekend, Scotland will be targetting us for their first win in about a decade. Realistically, we could be in a wooden spoon fight out with Italy. I know that might seem extreme, but if you compare the way we play with the way Eng, Scot and Ire are currently playing and the 6N could be extremely bleak for us.

joshfishkins wrote:Having seen the results this weekend, Scotland will be targetting us for their first win in about a decade. Realistically, we could be in a wooden spoon fight out with Italy. I know that might seem extreme, but if you compare the way we play with the way Eng, Scot and Ire are currently playing and the 6N could be extremely bleak for us.

Very true. France and Italy haven't looked great for some time so there is an opportunity to avoid the wooden spoon, although part of me (somewhat fatalistically) just thinks feck it, if we get the wooden spoon its just one more nail in Howley's coffin.

Sandydragon wrote:

joshfishkins wrote:Having seen the results this weekend, Scotland will be targetting us for their first win in about a decade. Realistically, we could be in a wooden spoon fight out with Italy. I know that might seem extreme, but if you compare the way we play with the way Eng, Scot and Ire are currently playing and the 6N could be extremely bleak for us.

Very true. France and Italy haven't looked great for some time so there is an opportunity to avoid the wooden spoon, although part of me (somewhat fatalistically) just thinks feck it, if we get the wooden spoon its just one more nail in Howley's coffin.

Position Teams Points
1 New Zealand 94.57
2 England 89.84
3 Australia 87.51
4 South Africa 84.49
5 Ireland 83.67
6 Wales 81.72
7 France 80.75
8 Argentina 80.71
9 Scotland 79.78

I still don't think Scotland will beat us, despite recent events. It's a rock, paper, scissors thing (sort of).

I think we'll do well enough in the 6N to stay within the top 8. But, yes, if we do lose to Scotland, then so be it, that should be fatal to Howley's future in Welsh coaching.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

joshfishkins wrote:Having seen the results this weekend, Scotland will be targetting us for their first win in about a decade. Realistically, we could be in a wooden spoon fight out with Italy. I know that might seem extreme, but if you compare the way we play with the way Eng, Scot and Ire are currently playing and the 6N could be extremely bleak for us.

Very true. France and Italy haven't looked great for some time so there is an opportunity to avoid the wooden spoon, although part of me (somewhat fatalistically) just thinks feck it, if we get the wooden spoon its just one more nail in Howley's coffin.

Position Teams Points
1 New Zealand 94.57
2 England 89.84
3 Australia 87.51
4 South Africa 84.49
5 Ireland 83.67
6 Wales 81.72
7 France 80.75
8 Argentina 80.71
9 Scotland 79.78

I still don't think Scotland will beat us, despite recent events. It's a rock, paper, scissors thing (sort of).

I think we'll do well enough in the 6N to stay within the top 8. But, yes, if we do lose to Scotland, then so be it, that should be fatal to Howley's future in Welsh coaching.

Should be. Doubt it will be though will it?