Snap General Election called

[Son of Mathonwy]

It's not a bad manfesto-lite. I guess Starmer's military cosplaying isn't the end of the world. God knows, it might appeal to some. The Missions are pretty positive, as is securonomics (something of the opposite to the disaster capitalism this Brexiteering lot have inflicted on us). Not a whole lot about climate change though. It's in there but low profile.

Not nearly radical enough for me (obviously) but a small step in the right direction.

Corbyn would never have done it, which is probably the point.

I was listening to a podcast the other day which was talking about the margin of swing needed to secure a Labour majority of 1 seat. It's pretty much unprecedented. Under those circumstances, its very understandable why Labour are trying very hard not to give people a reason not to vote for them.

Yeah but swings are bullshit. Each party starts the election with zero votes, there's no ground to make up.

There's first past the post to get through, and expect Reform UK to fold for the Tories in the end (and/or be bribed by them). I can understand the caution, I'm just not expecting much from the new New Labour.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It's not a bad manfesto-lite. I guess Starmer's military cosplaying isn't the end of the world. God knows, it might appeal to some. The Missions are pretty positive, as is securonomics (something of the opposite to the disaster capitalism this Brexiteering lot have inflicted on us). Not a whole lot about climate change though. It's in there but low profile.

Not nearly radical enough for me (obviously) but a small step in the right direction.

Can't focus on climate change anymore - might upset a voter.

Puja

Might inspire them too. Truth is, I doubt climate change means much to Starmer anyway.

[Puja]

It's not a bad manfesto-lite. I guess Starmer's military cosplaying isn't the end of the world. God knows, it might appeal to some. The Missions are pretty positive, as is securonomics (something of the opposite to the disaster capitalism this Brexiteering lot have inflicted on us). Not a whole lot about climate change though. It's in there but low profile.

Not nearly radical enough for me (obviously) but a small step in the right direction.

Can't focus on climate change anymore - might upset a voter.

Puja

Might inspire them too. Truth is, I doubt climate change means much to Starmer anyway.

Yeah, "inspire" is very much not the aim of the game. I think climate change meant something back before it got reclassified as "woke" and instantly ditched out of caution.

Puja

[Puja]

It's not a bad manfesto-lite. I guess Starmer's military cosplaying isn't the end of the world. God knows, it might appeal to some. The Missions are pretty positive, as is securonomics (something of the opposite to the disaster capitalism this Brexiteering lot have inflicted on us). Not a whole lot about climate change though. It's in there but low profile.

Not nearly radical enough for me (obviously) but a small step in the right direction.

Corbyn would never have done it, which is probably the point.

I was listening to a podcast the other day which was talking about the margin of swing needed to secure a Labour majority of 1 seat. It's pretty much unprecedented. Under those circumstances, its very understandable why Labour are trying very hard not to give people a reason not to vote for them.

Yeah but swings are bullshit. Each party starts the election with zero votes, there's no ground to make up.

Swings are especially bullshit this election, as the last election turned into a FPtP Get Brexit Done referendum, so the major wedge issue from 2019 doesn't even exist anymore. Combine that with a) getting rid of the highly electable charismatic serial liar, b) Truss annihilating the public perception that Conservative is a safe vote, c) voter fatigue after 14 years of Conservatives and things getting worse, d) the Tories finding a leader that their own base didn't want, e) the Tories finding the only leader less charismatic than May.

To try and compare the current situation with 2019 is a waste of time, as it's not the same match-up in the slightest.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Corbyn would never have done it, which is probably the point.

I was listening to a podcast the other day which was talking about the margin of swing needed to secure a Labour majority of 1 seat. It's pretty much unprecedented. Under those circumstances, its very understandable why Labour are trying very hard not to give people a reason not to vote for them.

Yeah but swings are bullshit. Each party starts the election with zero votes, there's no ground to make up.

Swings are especially bullshit this election, as the last election turned into a FPtP Get Brexit Done referendum, so the major wedge issue from 2019 doesn't even exist anymore. Combine that with a) getting rid of the highly electable charismatic serial liar, b) Truss annihilating the public perception that Conservative is a safe vote, c) voter fatigue after 14 years of Conservatives and things getting worse, d) the Tories finding a leader that their own base didn't want, e) the Tories finding the only leader less charismatic than May.

To try and compare the current situation with 2019 is a waste of time, as it's not the same match-up in the slightest.

Puja

For all those reasons it’s certainly possible. It’s wrong to call a swing complete bullshit, the historical evidence would counter such a view. But I do agree that overturning such a large majority would be possible this time around, but the road to victory isn’t as simple as 97. Which is why Starmer is playing it safe rather than trying to get a grown up students union elected.

[Puja]

Sunak sinking to a new low in PMQs today. Keir Starmer's opening remarks included talking about Brianna Ghey's murder and the fact that her mother was in the Commons public gallery ahead of a meeting that day, and no less than 90 seconds later, Sunak is dismissing a Starmer question with a heavily rehearsed pat response including "he doesn't even know what a woman is."

I don't know what is the worse option of the two possibilities - either Sunak is so robotic and scripted that he has no ability to answer a question with anything other than his pre-prepared "quip" after being made aware that it was highly inappropriate, or that he's decided he doesn't care about the mother of a murdered child being present and it's more important to keep pushing his culture wars shit.

Not that Starmer's confected outrage was particularly edifying either, but he does at least pretend to decency.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Sunak sinking to a new low in PMQs today. Keir Starmer's opening remarks included talking about Brianna Ghey's murder and the fact that her mother was in the Commons public gallery ahead of a meeting that day, and no less than 90 seconds later, Sunak is dismissing a Starmer question with a heavily rehearsed pat response including "he doesn't even know what a woman is."

I don't know what is the worse option of the two possibilities - either Sunak is so robotic and scripted that he has no ability to answer a question with anything other than his pre-prepared "quip" after being made aware that it was highly inappropriate, or that he's decided he doesn't care about the mother of a murdered child being present and it's more important to keep pushing his culture wars shit.

Not that Starmer's confected outrage was particularly edifying either, but he does at least pretend to decency.

Puja

Yeah, it was a low point in our parliamentary history. I think Sunak was pre-scripted on that one, the 99% u-turn reference must have been sounded out with aides before hand. Sunak's reaction afterwards was far more sensible and reasonable as if he (I hope) realised that whilst criticising Starmer for being able to change his mind over night, picking a fight over trans rights with a mother of a murdered trans teen in the room was always going to be utterly stupid.

[Sandydragon]

And it should be noted that Sunaks attack line was meeting with approval from the MPs immediately behind him before Starmer pointed out why it was so inappropriate.

[cashead]

Jesus Christ, Rishi. You utter penis.

Why not just dig up Brianna’s grave and take a massive dump on her while you’re at it, you piece of shit.

[cashead]

Let's not forget the allegedly right honourable Victoria Atkins busting a gut laughing at the haha-larious knee-slapper of a super smart funny speshul funny funny funny jokey joke about Brianna Ghey.

Fuck that fucking piece of shit too.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It's not even dog whistle. It's just whistle. And so their nature is revealed (yet again).

I'm not expecting much from Starmer but please can we be rid of these shits?

[Sandydragon]

Let's not forget the allegedly right honourable Victoria Atkins busting a gut laughing at the haha-larious knee-slapper of a super smart funny speshul funny funny funny jokey joke about Brianna Ghey.

Fuck that fucking piece of shit too.

What I detest about parliament (and its all parties) is this comedy panto routine where they all bray in unison when their leader has done a 'funny' or tut tut when the opposition is speaking. None of this actually makes this country better.

I have just finished listening to Rory Stewarts memoirs and its really depressing:

How many ministers are totally unqualified for the role they perform and also dont really want to find out more to make them effective,
How quickly ministers get moved about (reinforcing the problem above),
The control that No 10 has in basically demanding their MPs support policy and allow next to no time for proper scrutiny.

I could go on but the whole thing is badly in need of a shake up. Id actually prefer the US system where people who might know something about a policy area are brought in and then face scrutiny from congress. Our parliamentarians are just nodding sheep.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Starmer is really doing his best to stop me from voting Labour.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rong-wrong

[Sandydragon]

Starmer is really doing his best to stop me from voting Labour.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rong-wrong

Starmer is determined not to give the Tories any attack line that the region wing media could amplify. That makes him really boring but it’s not a bad strategy for him at this point. I get that this makes those to the left of labour upset but the question for you is whether you wish to enable this current government to win again or vote them out. Personally, I’m not sold on labour but since they have the best chance of getting the local Conservative MP out I’ll be voting for them at the next election.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Starmer is really doing his best to stop me from voting Labour.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rong-wrong

Starmer is determined not to give the Tories any attack line that the region wing media could amplify. That makes him really boring but it’s not a bad strategy for him at this point. I get that this makes those to the left of labour upset but the question for you is whether you wish to enable this current government to win again or vote them out. Personally, I’m not sold on labour but since they have the best chance of getting the local Conservative MP out I’ll be voting for them at the next election.

There's quite a bit of space to the left of Labour, given that they're centre right these days.

[Sandydragon]

Centre definitely.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Centre definitely.

Well, from their policies they seem to be just left of the Tories, whatever that makes them. You may be thinking of Labour in the past.

[Sandydragon]

Centre definitely.

Well, from their policies they seem to be just left of the Tories, whatever that makes them. You may be thinking of Labour in the past.

I disagree. They are being careful about appearing competent. They certainly aren’t hard left so will want to work in the current system, but that’s hardly right wing.

[Puja]

Centre definitely.

Well, from their policies they seem to be just left of the Tories, whatever that makes them. You may be thinking of Labour in the past.

I disagree. They are being careful about appearing competent. They certainly aren’t hard left so will want to work in the current system, but that’s hardly right wing.

They are no reversal of bankers bonus, low corporation tax, barely any increase from the current levels of austerity spending on public spending. While it may be caution over trying not to scare the horses, their publically stated positions are to not reverse almost anything that the Tories have done, which makes them pretty right wing.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Well, from their policies they seem to be just left of the Tories, whatever that makes them. You may be thinking of Labour in the past.

I disagree. They are being careful about appearing competent. They certainly aren’t hard left so will want to work in the current system, but that’s hardly right wing.

They are no reversal of bankers bonus, low corporation tax, barely any increase from the current levels of austerity spending on public spending. While it may be caution over trying not to scare the horses, their publically stated positions are to not reverse almost anything that the Tories have done, which makes them pretty right wing.

Puja

Its not right wing to wish to keep the markets and top corporations from panicking at the thought of a Labour government. I'd suggest that Starmer is leaning heavily on the new Labour model which wasnt a right wing one, more moderate centre left.

[Puja]

I disagree. They are being careful about appearing competent. They certainly aren’t hard left so will want to work in the current system, but that’s hardly right wing.

They are no reversal of bankers bonus, low corporation tax, barely any increase from the current levels of austerity spending on public spending. While it may be caution over trying not to scare the horses, their publically stated positions are to not reverse almost anything that the Tories have done, which makes them pretty right wing.

Puja

Its not right wing to wish to keep the markets and top corporations from panicking at the thought of a Labour government. I'd suggest that Starmer is leaning heavily on the new Labour model which wasnt a right wing one, more moderate centre left.

But it is right wing to keep to ridiculously stringent levels of austerity, stripped back public service budgets, and to furiously deny any suggestion that you might even think about anything even remotely linked to demand-side economics.

New Labour came in proposing national minimum wage, child tax credits, free childcare hours, improved education and breakfast clubs and Sure Start centres. They built their economic pitch on Keynes - driving the engine with demand through policies that increased equality, equity, and opportunity and the increased economic activity that comes from people having money to spend. New Labour were moderate left, absolutely - Starmer's Labour have none of that whatsoever. Granted, it's a very different time in the public finances, but there's no appetite whatsoever for anything about increasing equality and boosting the economy that way - they're trying to compete with the Tories on being the party of low taxes.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

I'd also point out that the debate over how left-wing (or not) Labour is currently is the wrong discussion to be having. This current Conservative administration is pushing our government as far right as I can remember. Policies that could have originated in far-right parties (i.e. the Rwanda scheme) are now mainstream Conservative policies, even to the point of defining a premiership. This is less about how socialist Labour might be in power and more about removing a bunch of charlatans engaging in far-right fantasy politics from power. I don't for some second equate Starmer with Sunak in terms of fitness to hold high public office (whilst less insane than his 2 predecessors). If you don't vote to get Sunak et al out of power, you're enabling them.

[Sandydragon]

They are no reversal of bankers bonus, low corporation tax, barely any increase from the current levels of austerity spending on public spending. While it may be caution over trying not to scare the horses, their publically stated positions are to not reverse almost anything that the Tories have done, which makes them pretty right wing.

Puja

Its not right wing to wish to keep the markets and top corporations from panicking at the thought of a Labour government. I'd suggest that Starmer is leaning heavily on the new Labour model which wasnt a right wing one, more moderate centre left.

But it is right wing to keep to ridiculously stringent levels of austerity, stripped back public service budgets, and to furiously deny any suggestion that you might even think about anything even remotely linked to demand-side economics.

New Labour came in proposing national minimum wage, child tax credits, free childcare hours, improved education and breakfast clubs and Sure Start centres. They built their economic pitch on Keynes - driving the engine with demand through policies that increased equality, equity, and opportunity and the increased economic activity that comes from people having money to spend. New Labour were moderate left, absolutely - Starmer's Labour have none of that whatsoever. Granted, it's a very different time in the public finances, but there's no appetite whatsoever for anything about increasing equality and boosting the economy that way - they're trying to compete with the Tories on being the party of low taxes.

Puja

How dire was the economy in 1997 vs now? Proposing big spending plans is a trap that would see Labour lose the opportunity to win a majority, a task that is hard enough already.

[Puja]

I'd also point out that the debate over how left-wing (or not) Labour is currently is the wrong discussion to be having. This current Conservative administration is pushing our government as far right as I can remember. Policies that could have originated in far-right parties (i.e. the Rwanda scheme) are now mainstream Conservative policies, even to the point of defining a premiership. This is less about how socialist Labour might be in power and more about removing a bunch of charlatans engaging in far-right fantasy politics from power. I don't for some second equate Starmer with Sunak in terms of fitness to hold high public office (whilst less insane than his 2 predecessors). If you don't vote to get Sunak et al out of power, you're enabling them.

This is a very reasonable point and one which is worth bearing in mind, but there is also only so far that people can be pushed on the basis that, "You have to vote for us no matter what we do, because otherwise you're enabling them."

How dire was the economy in 1997 vs now? Proposing big spending plans is a trap that would see Labour lose the opportunity to win a majority, a task that is hard enough already.

I would question the last part - while opinion polls outside of an election aren't exactly worth much, Labour are currently on for a 320 seat majority (not to mention that they're in a different position to the Conservatives in that the Lib Dems and SNP are unlikely to oppose the formation of their government). This is a historically unpopular Conservative government, hated so fiercely by their own base that even the threat of, "You have to vote for us no matter what we do, because otherwise you're enabling them," isn't working to keep people from Reform. While it is not certain that they are losing the next election, it is pretty close to certain.

That's not to say that Starmer can do what he likes or that there aren't things he could do that would lose him the election, but it currently his to lose. One of the ways he can do that is by pissing off the centrist voters so they won't turn out for him, but one of the others is to piss off the youth and left voters who aren't keen on being wooed by "You'll vote for us no matter what we do, so your interests can fuck all the way off."

I don't think he should be offering "Big Spending Plans", but he could and should have defended the green plans on the basis of "Investing in jobs and boosting the economy" and it's not the only thing where he's given ground and shouldn't have. An opposition has to offer hope as well as the absence of fear.

Puja

[Puja]

The other thing as well as that his sheer dominance in the polls is weakening the argument of "vote for us or it's more Tories." "If Labour are going to win anyway, then why not protest vote?" is the attitude, and that's obviously a dangerous thing to give momentum to (no pun intended).

Incidentally, I see in the latest MRP polls that the Greens are now predicted to pick up a second seat for the first time.

Puja