COVID19

[cashead]

St Cuthbert’s Colege, if that’s what morepork is talking about, is a posh a.f. private girl’s school in Auckland. I’ve been on campus a few times, and yeah, it’s fancy as heck.

[Galfon]

646 deaths reported yesterday in uk, 7 day avge. highest for over a year and more than double the winter peak ...the 'Spring' Omicron had already caused chaos with A&E waiting times in recent weeks.
Another glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel though - only 1 in 17 has it now, down from 1 in 15 last week.
(Around 70% of people in Eng. have had it now apparently.)
The Autumn booster plan for under 75's/non-vulnerables is starting to look critical already - just hope we by-pass a 'Summer' variant.
In the meantime, back to the office y'loafers and slackers !

[Mellsblue]

This chap was one of my go to sources of info during the pandemic, and not just because he seemed to be one of the few voices that actually prioritised children:

https://alasdairmunro.substack.com/p/le ... 1fhhmw&s=r

[Mellsblue]

The WHO report on excess deaths during* the pandemic has been released. Quite unbelievably, the Germans did worse than the U.K. despite being held up as the model to follow in 2020 for large European countries. Spain and, unsurprisingly given they caught the brunt of the first wave, Italy also fare worse. Kudos to France who fare best of the large European countries.

https://www.who.int/data/stories/global ... ember-2021

*too early for China, surely, as they still seem to be in the midst of the crisis despite supposedly being the example we should’ve followed…. On which note, I was shocked to learn that NZ still have closed borders.

[Stom]

The WHO report on excess deaths during* the pandemic has been realised. Quite unbelievably, the Germans did worse than the U.K. despite being held up as the model to follow in 2020 for large European countries. Spain and, unsurprisingly given they caught the brunt of the first wave, Italy also fare worse. Kudos to France who fare best of the large European countries.

https://www.who.int/data/stories/global ... ember-2021

*too early for China, surely, as they still seem to be in the midst of the crisis despite supposedly being the example we should’ve followed…. On which note, I was shocked to learn that NZ still have closed borders.

Just took a look, and Hungary would be fourth on that list. Yay. Pretty poor numbers, but predictable considering the state of the healthcare system and government.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The WHO report on excess deaths during* the pandemic has been realised. Quite unbelievably, the Germans did worse than the U.K. despite being held up as the model to follow in 2020 for large European countries. Spain and, unsurprisingly given they caught the brunt of the first wave, Italy also fare worse. Kudos to France who fare best of the large European countries.

https://www.who.int/data/stories/global ... ember-2021

*too early for China, surely, as they still seem to be in the midst of the crisis despite supposedly being the example we should’ve followed…. On which note, I was shocked to learn that NZ still have closed borders.

Just took a look, and Hungary would be fourth on that list. Yay. Pretty poor numbers, but predictable considering the state of the healthcare system and government.

This is the full list. No idea why the WHO would hide it away in the data download, but anyway:

Country Excess deaths /100,000
1 Peru 437
2 Bulgaria 415
3 Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 375
4 North Macedonia 369
5 Russian Federation 367
6 Armenia 332
7 Lithuania 319
8 Serbia 319
9 Montenegro 311
10 Georgia 307
11 Azerbaijan 280
12 Romania 279
13 Belarus 259
14 San Marino 251
15 Andorra 242
16 Mexico 242
17 Bosnia and Herzegovina 240
18 Ecuador 228
19 Ukraine 227
20 Republic of Moldova 225
21 Slovakia 223
22 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 222
23 Albania 221
24 Croatia 210
25 Poland 208
26 Latvia 204
27 Kazakhstan 202
28 South Africa 200
29 Hungary 189
30 Indonesia 187
31 Guyana 178
32 Czechia 173
33 India 171
34 Eswatini 164
35 Colombia 161
36 Brazil 160
37 Botswana 156
38 Turkey 156
39 Namibia 151
40 United States of America 140
41 Paraguay 138
42 Guatemala 137
43 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 137
44 Lebanon 136
45 Slovenia 134
46 Italy 133
47 El Salvador 131
48 Bahamas 127
49 Estonia 127
50 Egypt 122
51 Germany 116
52 Honduras 113
53 Oman 111
54 Spain 111
55 Somalia 110
56 The United Kingdom 109
57 Chile 101
58 Saint Lucia 101
59 Portugal 100
60 Tunisia 100
61 Argentina 99
62 Costa Rica 94
63 Kyrgyzstan 94
64 Greece 93
65 Lesotho 93
66 Nicaragua 91
67 Djibouti 89
68 Panama 88
69 Belize 87
70 Netherlands 85
71 Philippines 84
72 Cabo Verde 83
73 Iraq 82
74 Monaco 81
75 Cuba 80
76 Algeria 79
77 Belgium 77
78 Mauritania 74
79 Trinidad and Tobago 72
80 Guinea-Bissau 71
81 Niger 70
82 Mozambique 67
83 Tajikistan 67
84 Uzbekistan 67
85 Austria 66
86 Cameroon 66
87 Mali 66
88 Democratic Republic of the Congo 65
89 Central African Republic 64
90 France 63
91 Zambia 63
92 Suriname 62
93 Zimbabwe 62
94 Jamaica 61
95 Equatorial Guinea 60
96 Gambia 59
97 Chad 58
98 Jordan 58
99 Afghanistan 57
100 Libya 57
101 Sweden 56
102 Yemen 56
103 Nepal 55
104 Dominican Republic 54
105 Malta 54
106 Burkina Faso 52
107 Pakistan 52
108 Kuwait 49
109 Senegal 49
110 Sierra Leone 49
111 Benin 48
112 Côte d'Ivoire 48
113 Guinea 47
114 Morocco 47
115 Switzerland 47
116 Madagascar 46
117 Nigeria 45
118 Uruguay 45
119 Ethiopia 44
120 Malawi 44
121 Bangladesh 43
122 Sao Tome and Principe 43
123 Sudan 43
124 Cyprus 42
125 Haiti 42
126 Comoros 41
127 Congo 41
128 South Sudan 41
129 Myanmar 40
130 Burundi 39
131 Liberia 39
132 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 39
133 Cambodia 37
134 Mauritius 37
135 Gabon 36
136 Israel 35
137 Angola 34
138 Eritrea 34
139 Ghana 33
140 United Republic of Tanzania 33
141 Denmark 32
142 Canada 29
143 Ireland 29
144 Finland 26
145 Qatar 26
146 Timor-Leste 26
147 Saudi Arabia 25
148 Maldives 23
149 Uganda 22
150 Rwanda 21
151 Syrian Arab Republic 20
152 Bahrain 19
153 Singapore 13
154 Lao People's Democratic Republic 12
155 Malaysia 12
156 United Arab Emirates 12
157 Kenya 11
158 Thailand 11
159 Dominica 10
160 Luxembourg 6
161 Republic of Korea (South Korea) 6
162 Turkmenistan 5
163 Papua New Guinea 4
164 Seychelles 4
165 Mongolia 0
166 Norway -1
167 China -2
168 Iceland -2
169 Viet Nam -3
170 Solomon Islands -4
171 Fiji -6
172 Nauru -7
173 Japan -8
174 Vanuatu -12
175 Brunei Darussalam -13
176 Democratic People's Republic of Korea -14
177 Antigua and Barbuda -15
178 Tonga -17
179 Kiribati -19
180 Sri Lanka -21
181 Samoa -22
182 Bhutan -26
183 Australia -28
184 New Zealand -28
185 Togo -42
186 Tuvalu -46
187 Micronesia (Federated States of) -48
188 Barbados -62
189 Marshall Islands -67
190 Cook Islands -102
191 Palau -111
192 Grenada -118
193 Niue -154
194 Saint Kitts and Nevis -194

So, not surprisingly, South Korea, Australia, NZ, China and Japan come out well (as well as a collection of tiny island states). Germany vs France is a surprise based on earlier numbers, but Sweden's dreadful performance compared with its fellow nordic states is not.

All mainland European countries (other than Luxembourg) came out moderately to very badly, so the lesson for next time surely is, what did those successful, large countries (eg South Korea) do so well, and how can we can model our pandemic response on theirs? It's fairly straightforward, but there's zero indication that the UK government has learnt any lessons from this.

[Mellsblue]

Yes. Well done China. You’re still in long term lockdowns, whilst the rest of the developed world is pretty much back to normal life, and you’re starving you’re citizens but great job.

One of many articles on the subject:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... -shortage/

[Son of Mathonwy]

Yes. Well done China. You’re still in long term lockdowns, whilst the rest of the developed world is pretty much back to normal life, and you’re starving you’re citizens but great job.

One of many articles on the subject:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... -shortage/

No need to follow the example of China. How about South Korea?

[Mellsblue]

Yes. Well done China. You’re still in long term lockdowns, whilst the rest of the developed world is pretty much back to normal life, and you’re starving you’re citizens but great job.

One of many articles on the subject:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... -shortage/

No need to follow the example of China. How about South Korea?

A good idea*, and one all of Europe should probably follow albeit with allowances for the European way of life, but you’re the one who has repeatedly praised China, which was the point I was making. In fact, you repeatedly stated we should follow China’s example back in 2020 when they were doing as they do now two years later, ie incredibly harsh lockdowns with little thought for basic human rights.

*the irony being that’s the U.K’s medium term scientific response was closer to S. Korea than any other nation in the West.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Yes. Well done China. You’re still in long term lockdowns, whilst the rest of the developed world is pretty much back to normal life, and you’re starving you’re citizens but great job.

One of many articles on the subject:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in ... -shortage/

No need to follow the example of China. How about South Korea?

A good idea*, and one all of Europe should probably follow albeit with allowances for the European way of life, but you’re the one who has repeatedly praised China, which was the point I was making. In fact, you repeatedly stated we should follow China’s example back in 2020 when they were doing as they do now two years later, ie incredibly harsh lockdowns with little thought for basic human rights.

*the irony being that’s the U.K’s medium term scientific response was closer to S. Korea than any other nation in the West.

Your memory is letting you down there - it was South Korea I said we should follow most closely (possibly Taiwan also). It was obviously valuable to look at China's approach and experience (being at the epicentre of the pandemic) but it's far less similar to the UK than is South Korea, so less useful as a guide.

[Mellsblue]

The Chinese are beating this thing. We need to employ their methods right now. If this was a war we'd do it.

Not sure I want to live in a totalitarian, communist state. Their lockdown was two months of people going nowhere. Not sure that’s possible in the UK, either in the short term or the long term. There are already models showing that the financial fallout of tanking the economy will kill more lives than the lockdown will save. An impossible situation.
Also, if the King’s model is correct they aren’t beating this thing, they’re just through the first wave.

Whoops.

[Mellsblue]

Technically, does virulent mean 1) harmful to those infected or 2) easily transmissible, or both?

Yes, agreed that SARs was less effective in terms of spreading itself, which helped our (ie humanity's) efforts to contain it.

However, had planned nations acted as South Korea, or China or Singapore did, the need for a vaccine would be drastically less.

Whoopsy.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Sure, at the start of this I argued that we should use Chinese methods because they were a hell of a lot more effective at preserving life than what we were doing (which was very little).

When South Korea's approach became apparent I made it clear that it was the model to follow, clearly much more so than China's.

This is a guide to dealing with Covid-19, South Korean-style:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/timeline- ... e-covid-19

Big investment in testing.
Special immigration procedures for arrivals from risk areas (initially Wuhan, now much of the rest of the World).
Strict quarantining of those infected.
School closure.
The economy has NOT shut down, because effective action was taken. Much less expensive than letting the virus get a hold.

This is how a nation of 51 million, next door but one to China only has 152 Covid-19 death as of today.
Western governments should pay close attention.
It's too late to get it right but we can improve the trajectory of this thing massively.

Time and a plethora of inquiries will be required to find out who did what, when, how and why.
Just looking at numbers on a graph and deciding who acted correctly without context or letting the whole thing play out isn’t the best way of dealing with this in either the short or long term.

Yes, inquiries are needed, but that's for the future.

When I look at that graph I think "if we want to save lives we need to evaluate what South Korea is doing ASAP, and where appropriate, implement it", not "we can't possibly draw any conclusions from this right now, let's hold an inquiry in a couple of years".

As an example, I wonder if everyone who is praising the way China dealt with the crisis would accept the response of martial law, executions of dissenters and campaigns of disinformation from de Pfeffel’s govt. I somehow doubt it.

That's a ridiculous straw man.

1) South Korea (a democracy) is the most obvious stand out in that graph and is much more comparable to the UK than China is, so is clearly the first country to look at for best practice in Covid 19 response.

2) Why would adopting some of China's methods imply in any way that other, repressive methods are acceptable?

[Mellsblue]

You said my memory let me down when I stated:
‘In fact, you repeatedly stated we should follow China’s example back in 2020 when they were doing as they do now two years later, ie incredibly harsh lockdowns with little thought for basic human rights.’
and my memory clearly didn’t let me down, as you repeatedly stated we should follow China’s example in your posts I’ve quoted.

I missed it initially, but its pretty ironic that you’re now saying countries’ outcomes and actions shouldn’t be compared without context:
‘It was obviously valuable to look at China's approach and experience (being at the epicentre of the pandemic) but it's far less similar to the UK than is South Korea, so less useful as a guide’
which is something you argued against repeatedly with numerous posters at the time. ‘Far less similar’ is also an interesting/poor way of framing the differences between a Communist dictatorship that is widely believed to be carrying out genocide and one of the most liberal countries in the world.

I’ll leave it there. Many people got stuff wrong during the pandemic, even ones with professor in front of their name.

[Son of Mathonwy]

You said my memory let me down when I stated:
‘In fact, you repeatedly stated we should follow China’s example back in 2020 when they were doing as they do now two years later, ie incredibly harsh lockdowns with little thought for basic human rights.’
and my memory clearly didn’t let me down, as you repeatedly stated we should follow China’s example in your posts I’ve quoted.

I missed it initially, but its pretty ironic that you’re now saying countries’ outcomes and actions shouldn’t be compared without context:
‘It was obviously valuable to look at China's approach and experience (being at the epicentre of the pandemic) but it's far less similar to the UK than is South Korea, so less useful as a guide’
which is something you argued against repeatedly with numerous posters at the time. ‘Far less similar’ is also an interesting/poor way of framing the differences between a Communist dictatorship that is widely believed to be carrying out genocide and one of the most liberal countries in the world.

I’ll leave it there. Many people got stuff wrong during the pandemic, even ones with professor in front of their name.

I'd rather not waste time on this.

[morepork]

I don't think China has adopted the use of any of the available mRNA vaccines with demonstrable clinical efficacy, so they are likely using some pretty average/not fully trialed products.

[Mellsblue]

[Mellsblue]

The long tail of covid and lockdowns continues:

https://alasdairmunro.substack.com/p/wh ... ?sd=fs&s=r

[Which Tyler]

Oh shit.

Sister is in hospital with covid. She's clinically extremely vulnerable, immunocompromised, and operates on about 40% lung capacity at the best of times.

[Puja]

Oh shit.

Sister is in hospital with covid. She's clinically extremely vulnerable, immunocompromised, and operates on about 40% lung capacity at the best of times.

I'm so sorry to hear that. There's a lot more in the way of medicines and therapies that they can use on it now than there was at the start (and not just horse dewormer!). Hope she recovers quickly and well.

Not that there's a lot that I can do, but if there is anything, just name it.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Oh shit.

Sister is in hospital with covid. She's clinically extremely vulnerable, immunocompromised, and operates on about 40% lung capacity at the best of times.

Sorry to hear that. We have much better therapies these days, so hope all goes well.

[Mellsblue]

A decade of improving the attainment gap reversed by lockdown:

[morepork]

I had the pest last month and it fucked me right up. O₂ levels got right on the cusp of going to horsepital. I'm over it now but have some definite lingering issues. I also manage to narrowly avoid a fite with some fat septic that called me a "librul asshole" for wearing a mask in public. I work in a building that has a geriatric outpatient facility FFS.

That inequality gap is worrisome. A select few have made obscene profit increases, further evidence against the farce of trickle down economics.

[Mellsblue]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586- ... 1662678337

[Mellsblue]

Aus to end mandatory isolation and move beyond their ‘emergency phase’ next month. Strange to read of other developed countries still having such stringent measures in place when we’re pretty much back to normal.

On the downside, this year’s predicted strain of flu is a bad one, on top of an almost certain uptick in covid cases and lowered levels of flu immunity in the general pop due to lockdowns. It could be another rough winter.