RugbyRebels

This is the usual leaked version:

"Probable Wales team to face England: Liam Williams; Josh Adams, Nick Tompkins, Johnny Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit; Dan Biggar, Lloyd Williams; Wyn Jones, Ryan Elias, Samson Lee, Jake Ball, Alun Wyn Jones, Shane Lewis-Hughes, James Botham, Taulupe Faletau. "

Thats an interesting back row! I'm assuming no Tips (to be fair that was always likely) and would Wainwright be on the bench.

Biggar at fly half is also somewhat predictable. A bit like Privac wants to take a few chances but not too many. There is a real attacking potential in that backline and with Lloyd Williams at scrum half he should get good service (provided the forwards front up) but can Biggar pull the strings?

Im also surprised that Elias is picked ahead of Dee. Recent performances would have suggested that Dee has the basics nailed better at the moment.

Sandydragon wrote:Thats an interesting back row! I'm assuming no Tips (to be fair that was always likely) and would Wainwright be on the bench.

Biggar at fly half is also somewhat predictable. A bit like Privac wants to take a few chances but not too many. There is a real attacking potential in that backline and with Lloyd Williams at scrum half he should get good service (provided the forwards front up) but can Biggar pull the strings?

Im also surprised that Elias is picked ahead of Dee. Recent performances would have suggested that Dee has the basics nailed better at the moment.

Yes, picking Elias is a big risk for our line outs, especially as England will be putting huge pressure on our jumpers. I hope it’s not just Scarlet bias that’s keeping out Dee and that Elias has come through his wobbly patch. We need a secure line out.

Im also thinking about how efficient the English back row has been. Granted Navidi and Moriarty not being fit limits options. I would have played Wainwright (even if Faletau moved to 6), but its a big ask to have 2 very inexperienced flankers up against a very balanced and effective unit.

I can only see this as being a development exercise to blood new players for the future. In terms of this being a competitive game, I'm very pessimistic.

Official version:

WALES TEAM TO PLAY ENGLAND (SATURDAY 28 NOV KO 4PM)

1. Wyn Jones (Scarlets) (28 Caps)

2. Ryan Elias (Scarlets) (16 Caps)

3. Samson Lee (Scarlets) (44 Caps)

4. Jake Ball (Scarlets) (48 Caps)

5. Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys) (141 Caps) (CAPT)

6. Shane Lewis-Hughes (Cardiff Blues) (2 Caps)

7. James Botham (Cardiff Blues) (1 Cap)

8. Taulupe Faletau (Bath) (79 Caps)

9. Lloyd Williams (Cardiff Blues) (30 Caps)

10. Dan Biggar (Northampton Saints) (86 Caps)

11. Josh Adams (Cardiff Blues) (28 Caps)

12. Johnny Williams (Scarlets) (1 Cap)

13. Nick Tompkins (Dragons) (7 Caps)

14. Louis Rees-Zammit (Gloucester) (2 Caps)

15. Leigh Halfpenny (Scarlets) (92 Caps)

Replacements:

16. Elliot Dee (Dragons) (31 Caps)

17. Rhys Carre (Cardiff Blues) (11 Caps)

18. Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs) (50 Caps)

19. Will Rowlands (Wasps) (3 Caps)

20. Aaron Wainwright (Dragons) (25 Caps)

21. Rhys Webb (Ospreys) (35 Caps)

22. Callum Sheedy (Bristol Bears) (2 Caps)

23. Owen Watkin (Ospreys) (24 Caps)

I don't know. I just can't see a win. I know I should just accept we are doing a once in a decade restructuring but it will still hurt.

Did Botham do enough against Georgia to justify keeping his place, or is it just that all better alternatives are injured?

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Liam Williams is out owing to his lip injury apparently.

(15 stiches I believe.)

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Graigwen wrote:I don't know. I just can't see a win. I know I should just accept we are doing a once in a decade restructuring but it will still hurt.

Did Botham do enough against Georgia to justify keeping his place, or is it just that all better alternatives are injured?

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I suppose I should be grateful that James Davies isn't starting or on the bench. I'm just not convinced that he is international level.

Sandydragon wrote:

Graigwen wrote:I don't know. I just can't see a win. I know I should just accept we are doing a once in a decade restructuring but it will still hurt.

Did Botham do enough against Georgia to justify keeping his place, or is it just that all better alternatives are injured?

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I suppose I should be grateful that James Davies isn't starting or on the bench. I'm just not convinced that he is international level.

I think that is one thing we have learned. He is close to international level but seems to be too easily shifted if he gets on the ball atr a breakdown.

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Front five looks decent.
Back row . . . Botham is a real gamble, but options are limited.
Biggar/Lloyd 2 safe pairs of hands.
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.
Wing, no worries.
Halfpenny. . . with Liam out there's no real choice.

Altogether the odds are seriously against us. Forwards will be tested. Not sure our backs will see much ball.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Front five looks decent.
Back row . . . Botham is a real gamble, but options are limited.
Biggar/Lloyd 2 safe pairs of hands.
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.
Wing, no worries.
Halfpenny. . . with Liam out there's no real choice.

Altogether the odds are seriously against us. Forwards will be tested. Not sure our backs will see much ball.

This might be the game where England kick less and go through the phases more. I cant see us getting the possession stats that Ireland had. I suspect that we will have very limited ball and will need to make the most of it. Something that we have conspicuously failed to do in the last few games.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Front five looks decent.
Back row . . . Botham is a real gamble, but options are limited.
Biggar/Lloyd 2 safe pairs of hands.
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.
Wing, no worries.
Halfpenny. . . with Liam out there's no real choice.

Altogether the odds are seriously against us. Forwards will be tested. Not sure our backs will see much ball.

I have every confidence that England will be unable to live with the speed and intensity our young players will bring, while our older lags will play out of their skins to deliver their best performance of 2020!

normanski wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Front five looks decent.
Back row . . . Botham is a real gamble, but options are limited.
Biggar/Lloyd 2 safe pairs of hands.
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.
Wing, no worries.
Halfpenny. . . with Liam out there's no real choice.

Altogether the odds are seriously against us. Forwards will be tested. Not sure our backs will see much ball.

I have every confidence that England will be unable to live with the speed and intensity our young players will bring, while our older lags will play out of their skins to deliver their best performance of 2020!

There is hope. With Gatland and Edwards coaching, we would expect this team to cope with England, especially for a home match. So we need Pivac's plan to come together. I haven't given up hope, but I guess we'd be lucky if the plan suddenly started working on Saturday afternoon.

They need to channel 2007 and 2013.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Front five looks decent.
Back row . . . Botham is a real gamble, but options are limited.
Biggar/Lloyd 2 safe pairs of hands.
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.
Wing, no worries.
Halfpenny. . . with Liam out there's no real choice.

Altogether the odds are seriously against us. Forwards will be tested. Not sure our backs will see much ball.

I'd be more concerned about Tompkins's defence, he missed 3 tackles last time out against Georgia and that is not a channel to be missing tackles in.

I'm glad he's picked the youngsters in the back row, this will be a real experience for them and they are both physical players, I'm looking forward to see if Sheedy can add something in the second half when the England forwards start to blow a bit as Pivac has said he will get a good chunk of time.

Elias is a risk in the lineout but he adds to the scrummage so hopefully at least one set piece will be solid, LRZ will be up against his Gloucester team mate Johnny May, I can see them nullifying each other.

I'm hoping the lack of Gareth Davies's rush defence won't allow the Ford Farrell axis to much time.

I don't expect a win but I'll be pretty happy if we see some good performances.

At 55 minutes, both halfbacks will be replaced and Webb will probably kick the ball straight to Jonny May on any number of occasions. I'm finding hope to be elusive at the moment.

Sandydragon wrote:At 55 minutes, both halfbacks will be replaced and Webb will probably kick the ball straight to Jonny May on any number of occasions. I'm finding hope to be elusive at the moment.

Hope for the best; fear the worst. I can’t believe we’re going to be as dire as we were against Scotland and Ireland.

The plan has to come together at some time - let it be Saturday!

Gonna be a painful match to watch. Let's not forget we just sacked our defense coach. Things won't get better any time soon.

Sandydragon wrote:At 55 minutes, both halfbacks will be replaced and Webb will probably kick the ball straight to Jonny May on any number of occasions. I'm finding hope to be elusive at the moment.

You are not the only one!

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Numbers wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:...
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.

I'd be more concerned about Tompkins's defence, he missed 3 tackles last time out against Georgia and that is not a channel to be missing tackles in.

I agree about Tompkins, his defence looks flimsy at times. Actually, a lot of the time.


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Graigwen wrote:

Numbers wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:...
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.

I'd be more concerned about Tompkins's defence, he missed 3 tackles last time out against Georgia and that is not a channel to be missing tackles in.

I agree about Tompkins, his defence looks flimsy at times. Actually, a lot of the time.


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I swear his fitness is lacking too.

Graigwen wrote:

Numbers wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:...
Centres . . . Williams is a gamble too. Hope defence holds together.

I'd be more concerned about Tompkins's defence, he missed 3 tackles last time out against Georgia and that is not a channel to be missing tackles in.

I agree about Tompkins, his defence looks flimsy at times. Actually, a lot of the time.


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I don't know if I'd normally say he was flimsy, but so far he hasn't looked like a natural replacement for Barritt with his decision making in defence, he's more average which you could call flimsy at test level. Additionally for Wales you now seem to allow a greater freedom for players to run out of the line to to apply pressure, more similar to us actually, which will boost the missed tackle count, and Wales are now looking to go much higher in the tackle looking for the choke, and whether you have the power for that I don't know, though England don't offer much power in the midfield either.

The choke tackle plan would look much easier to employ with the likes of Navidi, Moriarty and Davies in the side

Digby wrote: The choke tackle plan would look much easier to employ with the likes of Navidi, Moriarty and Davies in the side

You think we actually have a plan????

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Graigwen wrote:

Digby wrote: The choke tackle plan would look much easier to employ with the likes of Navidi, Moriarty and Davies in the side

You think we actually have a plan????

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Is our plan not to have a plan? It’s another unknown unknown!

Graigwen wrote:

Digby wrote: The choke tackle plan would look much easier to employ with the likes of Navidi, Moriarty and Davies in the side

You think we actually have a plan????

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Granted I've not watched every second of your games, but yes I think very clearly you're going higher in the tackle and then if possible looking for the choke. Similarly the very straight line advancing in defence we used to see does now have have more people flying up to apply pressure, whether the 9, Tips, JD.... In both instances it's been a mixed bag, but I'd be astonished if these weren't shifts based on an actual plan because it's repeated so often and with set defence and not just in a scramble.

Digby wrote:

Graigwen wrote:

Digby wrote: The choke tackle plan would look much easier to employ with the likes of Navidi, Moriarty and Davies in the side

You think we actually have a plan????

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Granted I've not watched every second of your games, but yes I think very clearly you're going higher in the tackle and then if possible looking for the choke. Similarly the very straight line advancing in defence we used to see does now have have more people flying up to apply pressure, whether the 9, Tips, JD.... In both instances it's been a mixed bag, but I'd be astonished if these weren't shifts based on an actual plan because it's repeated so often and with set defence and not just in a scramble.

We've had rush runners for ages, it's why Gareth Davies is persevered with so much as he is the prime component of this, it's probably a good idea with England playing two playmakers as we won't want to be giving them too much time on the ball. Of course if our pack are going backwards then that negates the effectiveness of a rush defence.