RugbyRebels

Can someone sort my addled brain on this one?

Wales are apparently the first team to be certain of QF qualification.

How can England not qualify? To push England into 3rd place, two other teams would need to get to 15 points. Only Samoa and Japan can do that, with 2 BP wins; and they have to play each other, so they can't both do it. Argentina can only get to 14, so cannot overhaul England due to their match result.

What am I missing?

If 3 teams get to 14 points (Samoa and Arg could join Eng) it goes to points difference.

I haven’t checked if this is actually possible but I’m fairly sure.

EDIT:
Yes, this is possible. If:
Samoa beats Japan and England with exactly one winning BP
England gets no losing BP v Samoa
Argentina beats Chile and Japan with 2 wining BPs

Then all will end on 14 points. Head 2 Head can't break the tie because England beat Argentina who beat Samoa who beat England etc.

Then if both Samoa (current PD +24) and Argentina (-8) can boost their PDs to top England (+110), then England is out.

So for example, if the remaining games in Pool D went:

Samoa 54 (BP) - Japan 5
Pumas 81 (BP) - Chile 5
Samoa 22 - Eng 3
Pumas 30 (BP) - Jpn 6

Then England, Pumas and Samoa would all end on 14 points. England's PD of +91 would not be enough to surpass Samoa and Argentina each on +92.

Thanks!

I had missed the possibility of Samoa ending on 14...

*Now* England have qualified.

Puja

Never in doubt honest guv.

Sourdust wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 5:50 pm I had missed the possibility of Samoa ending on 14...

Evidently, so had Samoa.