Statistic of the Day

[Lizard]

I'll look at these wingers at some point. in the meantime...

Progression of the All Black's Try-Scoring Record
Opai Asher, 1 (scored on 15 August 1903): The first try scorer in NZ’s first test. Equalled in the same match by Dick McGregor and George Tyler.

Duncan McGregor, 2 to 6 (scored between 13 August 1904 - 16 December 1905): No relation to Dick, he scored twice in NZ’s 2nd ever test v Lions to take the record to 2. This was equalled by Archie McMinn, George Smith and Bob Deans (of disallowed try v Wales fame). McGregor then scored an amazing 4 tries in the Originals’ test v England to take the record to 6, where it remained when he retired.

Frank Mitchinson, 7 to 10 (25 July 1908 – 2 July 1910): Mitchinson equalled McGregor’s mark in the first test against the Anglo-Welsh in 1908, before scoring 3 tries in the 3rd test of the series to take the record and extend it to 9. He scored once more, v Australia in 1910 and retired as the record holder in 1913 with 10. This mark stood through both World Wars until…

Ian Kirkpatrick, 11 to 16 (6 January 1973 – 30 July 1977): This legendary loose-forward gained the record against England on 6 January 1973, having drawn level the previous year v Australia. He took the record to 16 in his penultimate test, the 3rd of 4 against the 1977 Lions.

Stu Wilson, 17 – 19 (16 July 1983): It was on the very next Lions tour to NZ (only 6 years later!) that Stu Wilson equalled the record in the 3rd test and scored 3 in the 4th test hiding to move the record to 19 – the second time that the record was taken in a hat-trick against a team now regarded as Lions. (The only other hat-trick v Lions was recorded by Springbok Tom van Vollenhoven in the 2nd test in 1955).

John Kirwan, 20 – 35(3 July 1988 – 9 July 1994): Kirwan drew equal with and surpassed Wilson in scoring twice v Australia in 1988. He held the record for the rest of his career, retiring with 35.

Jeff Wilson, 36 – 39 (14 October 1999 – 31 October 1999): Once again the record was equalled and overtaken in the course of a hat-trick, this time by Goldie moving the mark to 37 v Italy at RWC1999. Wilson became the first record holder to be overtaken during his career (he ended in 2001 with 44 tries to his name), by the incomparable…

Christian Cullen, 40 – 46 (19 August 2000 – 29June 2002): Cullen took advantage of Wilson taking a break from test rugby in 2000 to level the record on 5 August 2000 v Oz in the Tri Nations, and take it outright scoring a brace two weeks later v SA. Wilson never caught up and when Cullen was outrageously dropped he had taken the record to 46.

Doug Howlett, 47 – 49 (23 September 2007 – 29 September 2007): Howlett drew level with Cully by virtue of yet another RWC hat-trick v Italy on 8 September 2007. He took the record to 48 in his next game v Scotland, and to 49 v Romania. Staggeringly, he was hubristically rested for the infamous QF so that is where his record ended and still stands today.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Not sure Doug Howlett deserves to be in amongst the decline group.

Don't think it's true of our wingers. They've mainly been steady eddies.

[Lizard]

Not sure Doug Howlett deserves to be in amongst the decline group.

Don't think it's true of our wingers. They've mainly been steady eddies.

That’s not a “decline group”. It is literally every All Black with 12+ tries on the wing (except Umaga).

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Not sure Doug Howlett deserves to be in amongst the decline group.

Don't think it's true of our wingers. They've mainly been steady eddies.

That’s not a “decline group”. It is literally every All Black with 12+ tries on the wing (except Umaga).

Fair enough. My mistake. I remember thinking at the time that Dougie should have started the QF.

[Lizard]

Not sure Doug Howlett deserves to be in amongst the decline group.

Don't think it's true of our wingers. They've mainly been steady eddies.

That’s not a “decline group”. It is literally every All Black with 12+ tries on the wing (except Umaga).

Fair enough. My mistake. I remember thinking at the time that Dougie should have started the QF.

Yep. And Aaron Mauger should have at least been on the bench.

[Lizard]

Okay - back onto wingers' scoring rates declining. Requests first.

Cueto: Interesting one. He had a great first season and a half, and was then persisted with for 6 more years despite really not firing. To divide his 56 tests into equal parts he got: 8 in his first 8 tests (1.00), 3 in tests 9-16 (0.38), 2 in 17-24 (0.25), 2 in 25-32 (0.25), 0 in 33-40 (0.00), 1 in 41-48 (0.13) and 4 in his last 8 (0.50) aided by a hat-trick v Romania. Career rate of 0.36.

[Lizard]

Looking at the available squad, the backline should've been:

9. Byron Kelleher
10. Dan Carter
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
12. Luke McAlister
13. Conrad Smith
14. Doug Howlett
15. Mils Muliaina

and a bench of:
20. Andy Ellis
21. Aaron Mauger
22. Leon MacDonald

Stop it. It's still too raw. Bloody Facebook showed me a "Look what you were doing 12 years ago!" photo recently and it was me and Mrs Liz, NZ flag-draped and wearing our bespoke supporters' shirts we had designed and had printed, outside a backpackers in Cardiff heading off to see us win the Quarter final. That hurt.

The shirts were good though:

[Lizard]

Back to wingers..

May: Sort of an inverse Cueto. 3 tries in first 10 tests (0.3), 4 in second 10 (0.4), 3 in third 10 (0.3), 8 in 4th 10 (0.80), 7 in his last 9 (0.78). Overall he’s on 0.51.

[Lizard]

Seymour: maybe fits the profile a little better. 13 tries in your first 25 tests (0.52) isn't too bad when you're playing for Scotland, I guess. 7 tries in your next 30 tests (0.23) is pretty poor, especially when 6 of those 7 were scored against Georgia, Italy, Fiji (x3) and Russia. At 31 years old he hasn't got time to pull it back either.

[Puja]

Back to wingers..

May: Sort of an inverse Cueto. 3 tries in first 10 tests (0.3), 4 in second 10 (0.4), 3 in third 10 (0.3), 8 in 4th 10 (0.80), 7 in his last 9 (0.78). Overall he’s on 0.51.

May's even more interesting when you consider that you can split his first 20 caps as having 0 tries from his first 7 games and 7 from his next 13.

Puja

[Lizard]

Habana: Quite a complicated picture here. Started out with a hiss and roar with 15 tries in his first 15 tests (1.00, obvs) in 2004-05. 2006 he picked up 1 in the 3N and 1 on tour playing 10 tests all up (0.20). IN 2007 he made hay against the weaker RWC oppo and against England in November with 13 in 11 tests (1.18). He then entered a serious slump for 2008-11 when he dotted down only 10 times in 38 tests (0.26) despite facing Italy four times and Namibia and Samoa at RWC2011. His fortunes recovered in 2012-13, scoring 13 tries in 21 tests (0.62), but he had another shit year in 2014 scoring only twice (v Italy and Arg) in 11 tests (0.18). He did get 7 tries in 11 tests (0.64) in 2015, bolstered by 5 in the RWC pool including a hat-trick v USA. His final season saw a mediocre 3 tries in 7 tests (0.43). Overall rate was 0.54. and the distinct impression is that of a flat-track bully who went missing when it counted. He got only 17 tries in 49 tests v NZ and Aust (0.35). 4 scores in 7 RWC play-offs (0.57) looks OK, but that was 2 each against Arg and Samoa.

[Cameo]

"He got only 17 tries in 49 tests v NZ and Aust (0.35)."

That's not terrible against two of the best teams in the world at the time is it?

[Lizard]

It's not terrible, but it puts into perspective his overall career rate of 0.54.

For comparison, during Habana's career, against Oz and NZ, the higher strike rates (excluding NZ and AU players, minimum 3 tries) were by:
Jongi Nokwe: 4 in 2 (2.00)
Chris Ashton: 5 in 10 (0.50)
Marland Yarde: 3 in 6 (0.50)
Shane Williams: 6 in 14 (0.43)
Rhys Webb: 3 in 7 (0.43)
Breyton Paulse: 4 in 10 (0.40)
Francois Trinh-Duc: 3 in 8 (0.38)
Jasque Fourie: 10 tries in 28 tests (0.36)
Cedric Heymans: 4 in 11 (0.36)

[Lizard]

Campese:63 tries in first 88 tests (0.72), 1 in his last 13 (0.08). That 1 try was his only score from 7 May 1995 to 1 December 1996. I guess you can't really say he stuck around too long, consider the previous 13 years!

[Lizard]

Shane Williams: Doesn't fit the model. Scored 1 a test in his first 10, 8 in his second 10 and then went at 5 or 6 each set of 10 tests except for tests 31 to 10 when he only got 1, and tests 51 to 60 when he made up for that dip with 12. Career rate 0.66.

[Lizard]

Rory Underwood: Three phase career, rather than two.Started out very slowly (2 tries in his first 10 tests) and remained non-prolific up to about when he was 13 tries off 37 tests (0.35). 5 in a match v Fiji in 1989 seems to have sparked something and he got 19 in 16 matches including that Fiji test (1.19). In his final 39 tests he reverted back to his former self, only getting 15 tries (0.38).

[Lizard]

And finally...

North 9 in his first 12 (0.75), then only 1 in his next 10 (0.1) bringing his over all record to 10 in 22 (0.45). His strike rate from then until now is 31 off 70 (0.44) and has stayed pretty much the same (between 0.39 and 0.48, 0) over that whole period.

[Lizard]

Five Irishmen have now joined three other players who have lost three RWC quarter-finals. None of these poor chaps have ever won a QF:

N Francis (Ire), 1987-95
B Mullin (Ire), 1987-95
K Logan (Sco), 1995-2003
R Best (Ire), 2011-19
K Earls (Ire), 2011-19
C Healy (Ire), 2011-19
R Kearney (Ire), 2011-19

Three All Blacks have equaled the record of most QFs without losing one, now shared by:

S Fitzpatrick (NZ), 1987-1995
I Jones (NZ), 1991-99
J du Randt (SA), 1995-2007
C Dominici (Fra), 1999-2007
R Ibanez (Fra), 1999-2007
I Harinordoquy (Fra), 2003-11
K Mealamu (NZ), 2003-15
K Read (NZ), 2011-2019
S Whitelock (NZ), 2011-2019
S Williams (NZ), 2011-2019

[Cameo]

S Whitelock has an outside chance of extending that record at the next World Cup although I suspect he'll be gone by then

[Lizard]

S Whitelock has an outside chance of extending that record at the next World Cup although I suspect he'll be gone by then

He’s signed on to 2023, and will turn 35 during that tournament. So it’s possible but unlikely looking at the average retirement age of AB locks.

Recent(ish) retired All Black locks have played their last tests aged as follows:
Thorn*: 36
Romano: 31
Williams: 31
Robinson: 30
Thrush: 30
Flavell: 30
Jack: 29
Donnelly: 29
Maxwell: 28
Willis:27
Boric: 27
Eaton: 27

*Obviously a freak

[Lizard]

Here's a couple I've just noticed:

Dane Coles and Codie Taylor are tied on 11 tries each, one behind the record for an All Blacks hooker currently shared by Fitzpatrick and Mealamu on 12 each.

Kieran Read has 26 tries (all scored at No. 8) which is 1 behind McCaw's record of 27 for an All Black forward (26 scored on the flank, 1 at No. 8)

[canta_brian]

Looking at the available squad, the backline should've been:

9. Byron Kelleher
10. Dan Carter
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
12. Luke McAlister
13. Conrad Smith
14. Doug Howlett
15. Mils Muliaina

and a bench of:
20. Andy Ellis
21. Aaron Mauger
22. Leon MacDonald

Stop it. It's still too raw. Bloody Facebook showed me a "Look what you were doing 12 years ago!" photo recently and it was me and Mrs Liz, NZ flag-draped and wearing our bespoke supporters' shirts we had designed and had printed, outside a backpackers in Cardiff heading off to see us win the Quarter final. That hurt.

The shirts were good though:

I had a seat three rows from the roof and dead in line with the michelak pass. Yes that one. Even the french fans around us couldn’t believe it was let go. They were great sports about the whole night.

I wish I hadn’t replied to my Welsh friends half time text to the effect that being behind was all cool and that we would pull effortlessly away in the final quarter.

[Cameo]

I have a stat request for you if you fancy it Lizard.

I keep reading that NZ are a team that kick a lot but I think a lot of it is based on some stats from years ago. Is it still true and, if so, is it still true if you don't count things like kick passes (as opposed to contestable cross kicks) and dinks near the line?

Basically, the claim is used to argue that New Zealand are a territory team and gain the territory by kicking but I'm not sure that is true.

[J Dory]

Depends on the little voice, don't kick it, pass it, or, don't pass it, kick it.

[Lizard]

Bronze Finals

The most pointless game in the World Cup Cycle (except perhaps the Asia 1/Oceania 4 play-off eliminator) is nearly upon us. NZ has the statistical edge here with greater experience and a better overall record:

South Africa: 2 wins from 2 matches (100%)
New Zealand: 2 wins from 3 (67%)
Argentina, Australia, Wales: 1 win from 2 (50%)
France: 1 from 3 (33%)
England, Scotland: 0 wins from 1 (0%)