If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Which Tyler]

From the Kiel Institute, and focussed on Germany's contributions to the war in Ukraine
https://eadaily.com/en/news/2024/11/03/ ... v-ifw-kiel

Currently, the war has cost Germany around 0.1% of GDP (annually), in donations, coping with refugees etc. (I don't know if oil price inflation is included here - or how relevant it would be for the next statement)
They estimate that that could rise to 1.0-2.0% (annually) if Putin wins, in terms of ramping up military spending domestically, and coping with further waves of refugees.

Presumably, the numbers for this are greater for countries like Poland, Romania, Slovakia etc


Also looks like Maldova have annoyed Putin by voting for closer links to the EU, and keeping Maya Sandu as president.
Hopefully not the only time Putin is annoyed about a presidential election this week!

[Son of Mathonwy]

When will we realise we are in a kind of war with Russia? Every fire that breaks out reeks of the Russians engaging in sabotage.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/1 ... -shipyard/

No idea about this particular case but you'd hope that our intelligence services are fully switched on to the Russian threat now we're done with Tory oligarch cosiness.

[Mellsblue]

When will we realise we are in a kind of war with Russia? Every fire that breaks out reeks of the Russians engaging in sabotage.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/1 ... -shipyard/

No idea about this particular case but you'd hope that our intelligence services are fully switched on to the Russian threat now we're done with Tory oligarch cosiness.

Actually lol’d at this take. Bravo.

[Puja]

Went onto Twitter for something sensible and clicked onto a trending topic out of curiosity, despite knowing better by now. It is full of Russian bots/information posters, MAGA bots/information posters, and people who have been reading those thing and amplifying the propaganda, all of them frothing at the mouth about the fact that Russia is about to launch a nuclear strike in retaliation for the abhorrent act of Ukraine daring to {checks notes} bomb them back. Just constant repetition of Russian talking points about how they could obliterate all of Western Europe within a few hours with a nuclear strike.

This was how I discovered that Russia fired a (non-nuclear) ICBM onto Dnipr this morning. Significant escalation of rhetoric, although not a great deal more than that. Not really more important than any previous nuclear sabre-rattling, as everyone knows Russia launching any nuclear weapon (at least while Biden is in charge of NATO) would see retaliation and they're not going to risk that response on anything less than an existential threat.

Twitter is an absolute cess-pool though, full of right wing nutters and, to add to the mess, Jeremy Corbyn being spectacularly unhelpful by asking, apparently earnestly, whether we are now at war with Russia because our missiles were used. I have a lot of time for some of his politics, I think he was badly done by as leader of the Labour party in a lot of respects, I generally have a lot of respect for his anti-war positions, but that is arrant mince and a perfect example of why he failed as a party leader. He's either an idiot or playing one on television, neither of which is particularly dignified.

Puja

[Stom]

Went onto Twitter for something sensible and clicked onto a trending topic out of curiosity, despite knowing better by now. It is full of Russian bots/information posters, MAGA bots/information posters, and people who have been reading those thing and amplifying the propaganda, all of them frothing at the mouth about the fact that Russia is about to launch a nuclear strike in retaliation for the abhorrent act of Ukraine daring to {checks notes} bomb them back. Just constant repetition of Russian talking points about how they could obliterate all of Western Europe within a few hours with a nuclear strike.

This was how I discovered that Russia fired a (non-nuclear) ICBM onto Dnipr this morning. Significant escalation of rhetoric, although not a great deal more than that. Not really more important than any previous nuclear sabre-rattling, as everyone knows Russia launching any nuclear weapon (at least while Biden is in charge of NATO) would see retaliation and they're not going to risk that response on anything less than an existential threat.

Twitter is an absolute cess-pool though, full of right wing nutters and, to add to the mess, Jeremy Corbyn being spectacularly unhelpful by asking, apparently earnestly, whether we are now at war with Russia because our missiles were used. I have a lot of time for some of his politics, I think he was badly done by as leader of the Labour party in a lot of respects, I generally have a lot of respect for his anti-war positions, but that is arrant mince and a perfect example of why he failed as a party leader. He's either an idiot or playing one on television, neither of which is particularly dignified.

Puja

So because I don't read, watch, or listen to the news here, I've not heard anything of the propaganda. When I bring up the "news" with my wife, she starts talking about the nuclear threat, etc., etc., and I just have to say that that's not what I'm talking about, I've not heard anything new about that, and I was actually talking about Linda McMahon. And then I have to say that I don't see a greater "nuclear threat", and even if there was, what the hell could I do about it? So why think about it...

All I see in this conflict is that....why the flying feck haven't we actually tried to end the bloody thing. Any way possible...

It's a bit of a 1984 moment for me, and I therefore really do not want anything to do with it.

[Zhivago]

Went onto Twitter for something sensible and clicked onto a trending topic out of curiosity, despite knowing better by now. It is full of Russian bots/information posters, MAGA bots/information posters, and people who have been reading those thing and amplifying the propaganda, all of them frothing at the mouth about the fact that Russia is about to launch a nuclear strike in retaliation for the abhorrent act of Ukraine daring to {checks notes} bomb them back. Just constant repetition of Russian talking points about how they could obliterate all of Western Europe within a few hours with a nuclear strike.

This was how I discovered that Russia fired a (non-nuclear) ICBM onto Dnipr this morning. Significant escalation of rhetoric, although not a great deal more than that. Not really more important than any previous nuclear sabre-rattling, as everyone knows Russia launching any nuclear weapon (at least while Biden is in charge of NATO) would see retaliation and they're not going to risk that response on anything less than an existential threat.

Twitter is an absolute cess-pool though, full of right wing nutters and, to add to the mess, Jeremy Corbyn being spectacularly unhelpful by asking, apparently earnestly, whether we are now at war with Russia because our missiles were used. I have a lot of time for some of his politics, I think he was badly done by as leader of the Labour party in a lot of respects, I generally have a lot of respect for his anti-war positions, but that is arrant mince and a perfect example of why he failed as a party leader. He's either an idiot or playing one on television, neither of which is particularly dignified.

Puja

Putin's been on telly. Some new missile apparently called Oreshnik. More threats.

[paddy no 11]

A missile which is designed for nuclear weapons

[Son of Mathonwy]

A missile which is designed for nuclear weapons

We know he has ICBMs, we know he has nukes, he's been firing missiles at Ukraine for years. This tells us nothing new.

His newly scribbled doctrine means he should consider the missile attacks from Ukraine with US and UK weapons to be a joint attack on Russia. But he hasn't declared war on us. He's just trying to break our resolve.

He knows Trump is incoming and will make improve the situation for him. He's not going to start a nuclear war in the meantime.

[Zhivago]

Ruble is moving. Seems the sanctions the US imposed on Gazprombank last week finally achieved something.

[paddy no 11]

Ruble is moving. Seems the sanctions the US imposed on Gazprombank last week finally achieved something.

It better work fast you'd hope

The escalations are going to be grim for everyone and obviously trump can take off the thumb screws in Jan if inclined

[Zhivago]

Ruble is moving. Seems the sanctions the US imposed on Gazprombank last week finally achieved something.

It better work fast you'd hope

The escalations are going to be grim for everyone and obviously trump can take off the thumb screws in Jan if inclined

Wishful thinking on my part.

On the subject of Trump's policy on Ukraine, my hope is resting on this Kellogg chap. He doesn't seem pro-Russian.

[Sandydragon]

It looks like Ukraine is about to be sold out. It’s not even clear if Ukraine will be allowed to to attend the peace negotiations between the US and Russia, and trump is hinting strongly that he wants a return on thenUS investment in Ukraine to date.

No to joining NATO, Russia gets to keep the territory it’s seized, and Ukraine doesn’t look lol it will get any aid package to rebuild.

If this isn’t a wake up call for the rest of Europe that doesn’t want to speak Russian to invest in its defences now, then nothing will be.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It looks like Ukraine is about to be sold out. It’s not even clear if Ukraine will be allowed to to attend the peace negotiations between the US and Russia, and trump is hinting strongly that he wants a return on thenUS investment in Ukraine to date.

No to joining NATO, Russia gets to keep the territory it’s seized, and Ukraine doesn’t look lol it will get any aid package to rebuild.

If this isn’t a wake up call for the rest of Europe that doesn’t want to speak Russian to invest in its defences now, then nothing will be.

The great dealmaker has conceded Ukrainian territory and NATO membership before negotiations begin. Genius.

But, we have to ask, what then is Trump getting out of it (unless he really is that stupid)? What has Putin promised him? Prime Moscow real estate? Cash payment? Bribes are legal for the president now.

Europe will need to step up. The US cannot be relied on. In fact, for the next 4 years (at least) I wouldn't consider the US a member of NATO, at least as far as Europe is concerned. I wouldn't want to live in the Baltic states.

Trump potentially exposes the UK due to our dependence on the US for our nuclear deterrent. I believe this dependence (ie on design, maintenance etc) does not extend to their operation (ie no codes are required for launch - this is a matter of the chain of command/military discipline and allegedly they don't need the US-controlled GPS to find their target). Hope so, otherwise, in the face of nuclear threats from Trump's pal Putin we'd have to rely on the French deterrent (potentially to be in the hands of le Pen soon).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... ed_Kingdom

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-conf ... dependent/

[Which Tyler]

The great dealmaker has conceded Ukrainian territory and NATO membership before negotiations begin. Genius.

But remember, he DID talk to Putin before coming to that decision...
And only Trump and Putin have any place at the negotiating table - not the EU, or its member states, and certainly not Ukraine - Ukrainian sovereignty has nothing to do with them.

This is just yet another area where we need to distance ourselves from US dependence, and cosy up the the other Eurocommies.

[paddy no 11]

It looks like Ukraine is about to be sold out. It’s not even clear if Ukraine will be allowed to to attend the peace negotiations between the US and Russia, and trump is hinting strongly that he wants a return on thenUS investment in Ukraine to date.

No to joining NATO, Russia gets to keep the territory it’s seized, and Ukraine doesn’t look lol it will get any aid package to rebuild.

If this isn’t a wake up call for the rest of Europe that doesn’t want to speak Russian to invest in its defences now, then nothing will be.

The great dealmaker has conceded Ukrainian territory and NATO membership before negotiations begin. Genius.

But, we have to ask, what then is Trump getting out of it (unless he really is that stupid)? What has Putin promised him? Prime Moscow real estate? Cash payment? Bribes are legal for the president now.

Europe will need to step up. The US cannot be relied on. In fact, for the next 4 years (at least) I wouldn't consider the US a member of NATO, at least as far as Europe is concerned. I wouldn't want to live in the Baltic states.

Trump potentially exposes the UK due to our dependence on the US for our nuclear deterrent. I believe this dependence (ie on design, maintenance etc) does not extend to their operation (ie no codes are required for launch - this is a matter of the chain of command/military discipline and allegedly they don't need the US-controlled GPS to find their target). Hope so, otherwise, in the face of nuclear threats from Trump's pal Putin we'd have to rely on the French deterrent (potentially to be in the hands of le Pen soon).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... ed_Kingdom

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-conf ... dependent/

Yer deterrent will be filling for us too, cheers mate

[Son of Mathonwy]

It looks like Ukraine is about to be sold out. It’s not even clear if Ukraine will be allowed to to attend the peace negotiations between the US and Russia, and trump is hinting strongly that he wants a return on thenUS investment in Ukraine to date.

No to joining NATO, Russia gets to keep the territory it’s seized, and Ukraine doesn’t look lol it will get any aid package to rebuild.

If this isn’t a wake up call for the rest of Europe that doesn’t want to speak Russian to invest in its defences now, then nothing will be.

The great dealmaker has conceded Ukrainian territory and NATO membership before negotiations begin. Genius.

But, we have to ask, what then is Trump getting out of it (unless he really is that stupid)? What has Putin promised him? Prime Moscow real estate? Cash payment? Bribes are legal for the president now.

Europe will need to step up. The US cannot be relied on. In fact, for the next 4 years (at least) I wouldn't consider the US a member of NATO, at least as far as Europe is concerned. I wouldn't want to live in the Baltic states.

Trump potentially exposes the UK due to our dependence on the US for our nuclear deterrent. I believe this dependence (ie on design, maintenance etc) does not extend to their operation (ie no codes are required for launch - this is a matter of the chain of command/military discipline and allegedly they don't need the US-controlled GPS to find their target). Hope so, otherwise, in the face of nuclear threats from Trump's pal Putin we'd have to rely on the French deterrent (potentially to be in the hands of le Pen soon).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... ed_Kingdom

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-conf ... dependent/

Yer deterrent will be filling for us too, cheers mate

Just let Trump annex Donegal (hell, just give him a golf course) and he'll have reason to defend you. You know it makes sense.

[paddy no 11]

He has one of them already......trump doonbeg, Co Clare

[Son of Mathonwy]

He has one of them already......trump doonbeg, Co Clare

Yeah, got to get the balance right, let him have enough courses that he doesn't blow you up, not enough that he thinks he owns your country.

[Zhivago]

It looks like Ukraine is about to be sold out. It’s not even clear if Ukraine will be allowed to to attend the peace negotiations between the US and Russia, and trump is hinting strongly that he wants a return on thenUS investment in Ukraine to date.

No to joining NATO, Russia gets to keep the territory it’s seized, and Ukraine doesn’t look lol it will get any aid package to rebuild.

If this isn’t a wake up call for the rest of Europe that doesn’t want to speak Russian to invest in its defences now, then nothing will be.

It's bleak

[Son of Mathonwy]

Breathtakingly vile and stupid. The betrayal of a country. The lies about how much more the US has spent on Ukraine vs Europe. The idea that he now will claim back the billions given - like a loan-shark - in minerals. The stupid shortsightedness of it all. He has these ideas (plus those about arms reduction - as Russia spends 30% of it's GDP on war) after speaking with Putin. Trump's a stupid man, and this time he's surrounded by idiots. No one with enough IQ to tell him he's being played.

[morepork]

Breathtakingly vile and stupid. The betrayal of a country. The lies about how much more the US has spent on Ukraine vs Europe. The idea that he now will claim back the billions given - like a loan-shark - in minerals. The stupid shortsightedness of it all. He has these ideas (plus those about arms reduction - as Russia spends 30% of it's GDP on war) after speaking with Putin. Trump's a stupid man, and this time he's surrounded by idiots. No one with enough IQ to tell him he's being played.

This daily cosplay nonsense is why I’m checking out of the discussion. It’s completely fucked.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Breathtakingly vile and stupid. The betrayal of a country. The lies about how much more the US has spent on Ukraine vs Europe. The idea that he now will claim back the billions given - like a loan-shark - in minerals. The stupid shortsightedness of it all. He has these ideas (plus those about arms reduction - as Russia spends 30% of it's GDP on war) after speaking with Putin. Trump's a stupid man, and this time he's surrounded by idiots. No one with enough IQ to tell him he's being played.

This daily cosplay nonsense is why I’m checking out of the discussion. It’s completely fucked.

America is fucked and they're doing their best to fuck everyone within their reach. This is a month of Trump? China will pick up the pieces as the West destroys itself.

[Sandydragon]

Well NATO is dead and so too is the concept of a united west.

That will no doubt please some people, but the reality is that we now need to draw closer to Europe and ensure that we can defend ourselves. British military commitments, made by politicians who still think we have a global role, need to be cut back to defence of this continent and any other vital national interests.

[Which Tyler]

Julia Hartley Brewer vs Richard Tice - is this "friendly fire"?

[Son of Mathonwy]

Julia Hartley Brewer vs Richard Tice - is this "friendly fire"?

Yes, quite funny that, at the start - 'which part of the UK would you give up to an invader?' 'None' 'when would you stop fighting an invader?' 'When I'm dead' but its different for Ukraine.

For the rest of the video she's a Reform UK propagandist - Tice just lets her speak for a while, she's doing his job for him.