Falcons on the edge....

[jimKRFC]

Being bailed out by CVC and the other clubs apparently; https://news.sky.com/story/premiership- ... n-13328996

Not sure what the answer is but rugby is unsustainable it seems. Would really help if the 2nd tier was funded better and relegation was financially crippling.

Can we poach the guy who's been running French rugby for the last few years?

[jimKRFC]

Now a recruitment freeze as they can't afford to compete next season; https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union ... 052qk8y55o

Meanwhile Cov and Ealing fail minimum standards test. You'd think that faced with losing another team the league would be willing to let someone up to retain 10 teams

[fivepointer]

Grim stuff.

Be great to have a Prem team in the north east but that looks increasingly unlikely.

[FKAS]

I do wonder whether this is a ploy by Kudi to push along the purchase of Falcons by potentially interested parties.

[SixAndAHalf]

The CVC deal was not good for the Prem - the theory was that they would grow the pie meaning clubs' revenue was not hindered but this does not appear to have transpired. This is compounded by the fact that the one off funds received were often used poorly. The fact that CVC and other club owners are willing to provide a loan (which they will never likely see repaid) shows how close the whole thing is to collapsing.

The way I see it there are two options:

1. Increase the salary cap to the level of the Top 14

- This would allow the richest clubs (Bath, Bristol for example) to spend on acquiring star names and allow our teams to compete with Europe.
- The theory would be that the star names would grow interest in the league, leading to a better TV deal and potentially other rich owners buying clubs.
- However it could create an uncompetitive league where you see teams like Newcastle being beaten by 100+ regularly.
- Furthermore whether it would attract additional new owners is questionable given the CQC deal.

2. Merge with URC

- Feasible as CVC are shareholders of both
- Add the top 6-8 (depending on whether Wales have 2 or 4 franchises) English clubs to the URC. Have two "Divisions" of 10 or 12 teams. With the English clubs grouped with the Welsh (and Scottish if needed).
- Knockout phase at the end between the two divisions - following would be a knockout against the Top 14 (and Super Rugby if possible) replacing the existing European Cup.
- The remaining English clubs go into a newly formed English top division - formed of the strongest Championship clubs plus Wasps and Worcester.
- There would need to be a mechanism for relegation and promotion for English clubs from the top Division to the European league.
- If the English URC clubs was limited to 6 then deciding on who makes it would be very challenging.
- I like this as it would enable a reshaping of the global season into something more coherent (rather than having a large break from domestic rugby mid season for the Six Nations)
- Funding for the new English top tier would be critical - I wonder could there be a sharing of the total TV pot with the URC clubs on an agreed ratio (meaning there would continue to be a protective net over about 20 clubs). Ideal would be for the new English top tier to be shown on domestic TV.

Alongside this the RFU still needs to sort out the structure of the amatuer game which is losing players yearly.

Continuing as is will be just lead to an elongated death of domestic professional rugby.

[Puja]

The CVC deal was not good for the Prem - the theory was that they would grow the pie meaning clubs' revenue was not hindered but this does not appear to have transpired. This is compounded by the fact that the one off funds received were often used poorly. The fact that CVC and other club owners are willing to provide a loan (which they will never likely see repaid) shows how close the whole thing is to collapsing.

Who would've foreseen that selling 27% of your main income streams for a short term gain would've turned out to be a terrible idea?!

I mean, apart from everyone on here openly and repeatedly saying so at the time. I don't think anyone predicted quite this quantity of doom coming though.

Diamon in the papers saying the Prem are actively looking at options to increase back up to 12-14 teams and play through the 6N because they need more home games and hate having a break to disrupt momentum. Quite apart from the fact that the RFU have just certified that the only Champ club they would accept in the Prem is Doncaster, so I don't know where they're finding the other sides, this strikes me as disastrous. Yes, the season is a mess and there's no flow to it, but playing through international periods is not the solution. Club rugby cannot and should not be trying to compete with internationals for eyeballs - the two should be in synergy, with one feeding into the other.

The 6N finishes 7th March next year and summer rugby tours generally start first week of July, so that's 10-11 weekends for club rugby (depending on if you want the last one 2 or 3 weeks from the first tour game). Would it not make more sense, rather than having a season that skips from Prem to Europe to Prem to AIs to Prem to Europe to Prem to 6N to Prem to Europe to Prem to Europe, to have a separate club rugby competition that starts just after the 6N, gets cross-promoted and hyped up to drag eyes across, and runs for those 10-11 weeks?

Just off the top of my head, you could have a revamped European comp of all 40 top European teams in 5 seeded pools of 8, playing a single round robin. That's 7 'league' games, followed by round of 16 (top 3 from each pool, plus best third place), quarters, semis, final for 11 weeks of rugby (plus a plate underneath it so everyone gets at least 8 games). Wouldn't that be more likely to sell tickets and sponsorship and sell the game to new financing?

I'm just an idiot on a rugby board with no experience in these things, but surely there must be some way to make a season with a cohesive story running through it - domestic league, then Six Nations, followed by "don't change that channel; if you've loved watching Itoje and Bielle-Biarrey for their countries, they'll be around next week for the start of the European Club Championship!" (especially if the opening weekend's on FTA).

Puja

[Mellsblue]

I’m just sorry that Newcastle was such a licence to print money before CVC got involved…
Re CVC has anyone actually seen the numbers for increases in revenue etc etc? They’ve shot up. Whether that’s to do with CVC or not nobody on here knows but…

[SixAndAHalf]

Yes - completely agree with that idea. You could also have invitational games hosted by the clubs who don't make it through to the European competition to cover the lost revenue. The only issue I foresee is when you would hold the domestic finals as having them in early summer at Twickenham is I imagine a bit of a money spinner.

The idea of going up to 14 teams in the Prem strikes me of the type of short term thinking that has led us to this position. Yes, in the short term the extra games build revenue but longer term this results in a poor product due to uncompetitive games and ultimately means teams end up like Newcastle are now!

[SixAndAHalf]

I’m just sorry that Newcastle was such a licence to print money before CVC got involved…
Re CVC has anyone actually seen the numbers for increases in revenue etc etc? They’ve shot up. Whether that’s to do with CVC or not nobody on here knows but…

I don't think that is accurate unless for some reason you benchmarked to the COVID impacted seasons. Here are the revenues from 2018/19 (CVC investment was made in 2019) to 2022/23:

Revenues.png

Source: https://www.leonardcurtis.co.uk/rugby-f ... eport-2024

Not many (no?) clubs have increased revenues above the rate of inflation for the period. I note that some clubs have produced their results for 2023/24 but I can't see them collated anywhere.

In any case the league total revenue (which would be a key barometer) has declined significantly due to the insolvency of three clubs.

[TheDasher]

God the pickle that club rugby is in in is getting boring isn't it? Fundamentally, are enough people interested in it or not?

It just always feels to me that if one had all the data and info, there'd be solutions to turning the game around but the people involved don't have the ability/energy etc.

[Banquo]

The CVC deal was not good for the Prem - the theory was that they would grow the pie meaning clubs' revenue was not hindered but this does not appear to have transpired. This is compounded by the fact that the one off funds received were often used poorly. The fact that CVC and other club owners are willing to provide a loan (which they will never likely see repaid) shows how close the whole thing is to collapsing.

Diamon in the papers saying the Prem are actively looking at options to increase back up to 12-14 teams and play through the 6N because they need more home games and hate having a break to disrupt momentum. Quite apart from the fact that the RFU have just certified that the only Champ club they would accept in the Prem is Doncaster, so I don't know where they're finding the other sides, this strikes me as disastrous. Yes, the season is a mess and there's no flow to it, but playing through international periods is not the solution. Club rugby cannot and should not be trying to compete with internationals for eyeballs - the two should be in synergy, with one feeding into the other.

yes they are, and yes there are candidates....as there are back up candidates in the Champ if wuss don't cut it. Quite secretive and not obvious who they would be frankly.

[Mellsblue]

I’m just sorry that Newcastle was such a licence to print money before CVC got involved…
Re CVC has anyone actually seen the numbers for increases in revenue etc etc? They’ve shot up. Whether that’s to do with CVC or not nobody on here knows but…

I don't think that is accurate unless for some reason you benchmarked to the COVID impacted seasons. Here are the revenues from 2018/19 (CVC investment was made in 2019) to 2022/23:

Revenues.png

Source: https://www.leonardcurtis.co.uk/rugby-f ... eport-2024

Not many (no?) clubs have increased revenues above the rate of inflation for the period. I note that some clubs have produced their results for 2023/24 but I can't see them collated anywhere.

In any case the league total revenue (which would be a key barometer) has declined significantly due to the insolvency of three clubs.

Premier Rugby revenues have increased per the (reliable) source I read. Will try and I find it.
My point still stands re Falcons never being a going concern

[Puja]

I’m just sorry that Newcastle was such a licence to print money before CVC got involved…
Re CVC has anyone actually seen the numbers for increases in revenue etc etc? They’ve shot up. Whether that’s to do with CVC or not nobody on here knows but…

I don't think that is accurate unless for some reason you benchmarked to the COVID impacted seasons. Here are the revenues from 2018/19 (CVC investment was made in 2019) to 2022/23:

Revenues.png

Source: https://www.leonardcurtis.co.uk/rugby-f ... eport-2024

Not many (no?) clubs have increased revenues above the rate of inflation for the period. I note that some clubs have produced their results for 2023/24 but I can't see them collated anywhere.

In any case the league total revenue (which would be a key barometer) has declined significantly due to the insolvency of three clubs.

Premier Rugby revenues have increased per the (reliable) source I read. Will try and I find it.
My point still stands re Falcons never being a going concern

Entirely true, but they'd likely be closer to it/a more tempting buy for a new sugar daddy, if they hadn't sold 27% of the main income.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

I don't think that is accurate unless for some reason you benchmarked to the COVID impacted seasons. Here are the revenues from 2018/19 (CVC investment was made in 2019) to 2022/23:

Revenues.png

Source: https://www.leonardcurtis.co.uk/rugby-f ... eport-2024

Not many (no?) clubs have increased revenues above the rate of inflation for the period. I note that some clubs have produced their results for 2023/24 but I can't see them collated anywhere.

In any case the league total revenue (which would be a key barometer) has declined significantly due to the insolvency of three clubs.

Premier Rugby revenues have increased per the (reliable) source I read. Will try and I find it.
My point still stands re Falcons never being a going concern

Entirely true, but they'd likely be closer to it/a more tempting buy for a new sugar daddy, if they hadn't sold 27% of the main income.

Puja

What are you basing that on?

[Puja]

Premier Rugby revenues have increased per the (reliable) source I read. Will try and I find it.
My point still stands re Falcons never being a going concern

Entirely true, but they'd likely be closer to it/a more tempting buy for a new sugar daddy, if they hadn't sold 27% of the main income.

Puja

What are you basing that on?

I was just working on the basis that reducing your income long-term for a short term gain and a promise isn't usually a great business plan, but I'll gleefully admit to not having any knowledge about anything and will defer if you know more than me.

Actually, let's do some rough maths. Each club got around £18 million (going by the generally reported numbers). Going by SixAndAHalf's figures above, 27% of the aggregate PR revenues across 5 years is just over £22 million per club. That seems to corroborate the general calculation bandied about when the deal was signed in 2019, which was that CVC would break even in about 5 seasons.

Now, these are hugely back of the envelope, involve figures of varying quality of provenance, and don't take into account the possibility (however slight) that clubs would've invested the CVC money in something that showed a return. However, if we are going with CVC money in having equalled CVC money out across the first five years, then the deal was sold on the basis that CVC would raise overall revenues by enough that PRL would get the same amount of money from their 73% share as they did from 100% of a smaller pie. A bit of simple maths says that revenues have to have increased by more than 37% from the 2019 figures (not taking into account inflation, but I'm sure there's not been a huge amount of that across the last five years, so let's ignore it for the sake of a clean calculation), which would be a big ask across 5 years.

Like I said, I will happily defer to you if you can pull out something better than my massively back of the envelope estimations, but right now I remain pessimistic about the clubs having profited from this deal so far.

Puja

[Puja]

Eddie Jordan's just passed away. Very sad, as he seemed like a lovely chap, but also might mean turbulence for the phoenix London Irish without him being the driving force behind it.

Puja

[FKAS]

Eddie Jordan's just passed away. Very sad, as he seemed like a lovely chap, but also might mean turbulence for the phoenix London Irish without him being the driving force behind it.

Puja

I think his son was overseeing the project for Eddie.

Shame Eddie won't be in situ there though, his forthright insights would have been welcome.

[Margin_Walker]

Yep, very sad, but he's been ill for a while and his son is acting CEO of what's left of the club and has been driving all the activity taking place.

RIP

[jngf]

I’ve maintained that there are too many clubs in Premiership for the money professional rugby union is capable of generating in UK.

From a sentimental perspective it’s really sad when a club goes,Worcester has really not recovered yet from the loss of the Warriors for instance. There does however need to be a realisation that England can’t really sustain more than 4 or 5 fully professional clubs tops.

[Banquo]

I’ve maintained that there are too many clubs in Premiership for the money professional rugby union is capable of generating in UK.

From a sentimental perspective it’s really sad when a club goes,Worcester has really not recovered yet from the loss of the Warriors for instance. There does however need to be a realisation that England can’t really systain more than 4 or 5 fully professional clubs tops.

I'd put it higher, but broadly yes. The number usually agreed on in board debates is 8; but then you need a much more engaging european comp...er like it used to be, and fantastic TV income.

[Which Tyler]

@Banquo - do we still have any t-shirts left? or did we sell out?

[Banquo]

@Banquo - do we still have any t-shirts left? or did we sell out?

mine never fit

[SixAndAHalf]

I’ve maintained that there are too many clubs in Premiership for the money professional rugby union is capable of generating in UK.

From a sentimental perspective it’s really sad when a club goes,Worcester has really not recovered yet from the loss of the Warriors for instance. There does however need to be a realisation that England can’t really systain more than 4 or 5 fully professional clubs tops.

I'd put it higher, but broadly yes. The number usually agreed on in board debates is 8; but then you need a much more engaging european comp...er like it used to be, and fantastic TV income.

Part of the answer to that question depends upon what you want the league to look like - do you mean a league which competes with French clubs in Europe or a competitive domestic competition. And also where do you want your international talent playing?

If the latter then you can have more clubs (see Rugby League) but might eventually struggle to retain top English talent when you have the French league thriving on our doorstep.

To grow the game I am in favour of the richer clubs (6 to 8) entering the URC and then establishing a top league below that with a mechanism for relegation / promotion.

[Danno]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/ ... fu-meeting

Get him the hell out of there

[Captainhaircut]

I’m somewhat out of touch on this but how does Sweeney get the blame for the three clubs going bust? The RFU have no control over club spending do they? He didn’t make these clubs give out huge contracts to the likes of DVDM, Coleman, Le Roux, Beale etc that ultimately skewered them.

Am I missing something?