I suppose Starmer's thinking is that he's got until mid 2029 with relatively unchallenged power to recover things and that, by that point, he'll have achieved growth and can afford to bung some socialist policies to buy back the support of the left (or threaten them with "A vote for anyone else is a vote for Reform). It could work, in theory, but my concerns are that a) he won't achieve growth (14 years of austerity didn't work for the Tories, so why is he still trying to make it happen?), b) he's underestimating just how much he's pissing off the traditional Labour voter and how difficult it's going to be to get those votes back again, c) it's bloody dangerous to give Farage the credibility of being a realistic political force, especially when you yourself have the charisma and likeability of a toilet roll that fallen into the bowl.Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Wed May 21, 2025 4:47 pm Holy crap, I haven't looked at this for a while:. Not good:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election
Starmer ought to resign after a historically bad first 10 months. But not as fast as Badenoch, who is steering the good ship Tory to the bottom of the ocean. Farage doesn't need to do anything, Keir and Kemi are doing everything he wants.
The last one is most worrying - populists thrive on credibility and momentum. If he's the funny protest vote, then people will be discouraged because "he can't win, so it's a wasted vote." However, there's a tipping point at which he gains enough coverage and good enough results that people start to think of him as the de facto opponent to Labour and then things all start rolling downhill. Instead of "shy Reform voters" where people think they're scattered individuals who will be viewed as radical and extreme and keep away because of shame or fear of "wasting your vote", it'll become a normalised opposition to the government and, as people hear other people supporting Reform, more and more moderate people will feel comfortable "lending their vote" to Reform, because everyone else is doing it, so it's a reasonable and socially okay option. And then, pretty soon, it'll be the only option if you are against the government, because now it's voting for the Conservatives that's the wasted vote. Labour would have to start responding to his bloviations directly, which then lends him even more credibility, and accelerates the process.
There is obviously the chance that Reform could implode before that comes up, but I don't see it happening. Farage himself is a very competent and capable political operator who has ridden out many storms and, in a Post-Truth and Post-Shame political climate, I can't see him falling apart, no matter the incompetence and scandals of his MPs/councillors. Right now I am horribly reminded of the Democrats who celebrated Trump winning the Republican nomination because his incompetence, unlikeability, and scandals would surely guarantee them 2016.
Puja
