Six Nations Round 2- Resurgent Scotland

[Sandydragon]

It’s been confirmed that Lydiate, Amos, Jonny Williams and Tomos Williams won’t be available for this game. Lydiate needs a scan, whilst it’s expected that Tomos Williams’ hamstring won’t recover in six days. Amos and Jonny Williams both failed HIAs and can’t return to play inside six days.

More positively, Liam Williams is back.

[MrK]

So .

SLH, Webb, Halaholo/Roberts into the squad

Not too many changes in lineup

Halfpenny , Williams , North, Tompkins, LRZ, Biggar, Davies
Jones , Owens , Francis , Beard, Awj, Navidi , Tipuric , Faletau

Dee, Jones , brown, Rowlands , wainwright, hardy , Sheedy , ??

[normanski]

What positives can we take from Sunday?

1) 240 tackles is immense for any team. We missed destructive Lydiate early but the front five put in some enormous hits suggesting Gethin Jenkins is making an impression on the team. That bodes well for the rest of the campaign.

2) we hung on in the face of a terrific Ireland onslaught and then squeezed out the win. Reminds me of our performance in 2019 against France in the opener when we were dead and buried by half time. The ability to hang on and then win was a mark of Gatland’s teams and it doesn’t look as if we’ve quite lost the habit.

3) The front five held their own in the scrums - might even have got a nudge on at times surprising the Irish pundits. Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis have to be kept free of injuries to maintain the platform. Scotland are great scrummagers and if we can gain parity or better then it’s them who could be under pressure. Our two bench props were also up to the job.

4) LRZ looks the real thing and he will be far more confident next weekend.

5) Our bench looked tidy when they came on.

6) Although our lines out were shite at times that could be down to Ken’s lack of game time and some poor timing by the lifters. Hard work and practice this week could sort the problem and upset the Scots when they try to disrupt our throws in.

7) AWJ proved yet again how great a player he is. He was everywhere in the thick of the action. A Lions captain in waiting?

8) Gareth Davies had his brain fart in the 79th minute and I bet he was ragged to death by the team and coaches. He won’t make that mistake next week and will play out of his skin to makeup for that terrible decision.

9) Liam Williams is back in the mix.

10) Our discipline at the breakdown was much improved.

Please can we discuss the positives rather than dwell on the negatives which the coaches will be working on all week.

Murrayfield is always a difficult venue for us but we do have a pretty good track record there over the years.

Even though Scotland will be cock-a-hoop after only just putting away one of the worst England teams in living memory they are still vulnerable if we can get our defensive structures spot on. It just needs Finn Russell to have a couple of Gareth Davies brain farts during the game to open the door for us.

I forecast a 20-12 win for Wales against Ireland and nicking it in the last ten minutes. Nearly right!

My forecast for Saturday, a 22-18 win for Wales.

[Sandydragon]

What positives can we take from Sunday?

1) 240 tackles is immense for any team. We missed destructive Lydiate early but the front five put in some enormous hits suggesting Gethin Jenkins is making an impression on the team. That bodes well for the rest of the campaign.

2) we hung on in the face of a terrific Ireland onslaught and then squeezed out the win. Reminds me of our performance in 2019 against France in the opener when we were dead and buried by half time. The ability to hang on and then win was a mark of Gatland’s teams and it doesn’t look as if we’ve quite lost the habit.

3) The front five held their own in the scrums - might even have got a nudge on at times surprising the Irish pundits. Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis have to be kept free of injuries to maintain the platform. Scotland are great scrummagers and if we can gain parity or better then it’s them who could be under pressure. Our two bench props were also up to the job.

4) LRZ looks the real thing and he will be far more confident next weekend.

5) Our bench looked tidy when they came on.

6) Although our lines out were shite at times that could be down to Ken’s lack of game time and some poor timing by the lifters. Hard work and practice this week could sort the problem and upset the Scots when they try to disrupt our throws in.

7) AWJ proved yet again how great a player he is. He was everywhere in the thick of the action. A Lions captain in waiting?

8) Gareth Davies had his brain fart in the 79th minute and I bet he was ragged to death by the team and coaches. He won’t make that mistake next week and will play out of his skin to makeup for that terrible decision.

9) Liam Williams is back in the mix.

10) Our discipline at the breakdown was much improved.

Please can we discuss the positives rather than dwell on the negatives which the coaches will be working on all week.

Murrayfield is always a difficult venue for us but we do have a pretty good track record there over the years.

Even though Scotland will be cock-a-hoop after only just putting away one of the worst England teams in living memory they are still vulnerable if we can get our defensive structures spot on. It just needs Finn Russell to have a couple of Gareth Davies brain farts during the game to open the door for us.

I forecast a 20-12 win for Wales against Ireland and nicking it in the last ten minutes. Nearly right!

My forecast for Saturday, a 22-18 win for Wales.

I'll give you most of that, except that the line outs have been dire for a while now and need urgent work. We managed to win line outs by playing it safe which is fine but limits options. Rowlands seemed to do well when he came on there.

Discipline at the rucks improved after half time because we stopped trying to win turnovers for the most part. We were pinged off the park in the first half (and I was struggling to understand Barnes' view of th law at times and it did seem a lottery).

I would make a positive for the attacking pressure we had at times which was building momentum and forced a lot of penalties from Ireland. Basic skills lets us down a bit at times though.

Glass is more half full this morning than my initial reactions yesterday, but I cant help feeling that we have a long way to go still.

[normanski]

That’s how I feel after reflection, the glass is more half full.

Scotland ain’t going to be easy but a hard fought win next Saturday would set us up nicely for England in Cardiff.

Johnny Grey against AWJ will be tasty. Their back row are superb but Tips, a returning to form Navidi and Faletau, finally getting up to speed, could be their match.

We’re battered and bruised but now is the time to find that resilience and dig in and get some pride back.

We were written off before Ireland (annihilation?) but it didn’t quite happen. We now have the opportunity to build something special and put our 6N back on track.

[Sandydragon]

On the bright side, we aren't expected to win in Edinburgh. Underdog is a tag that suits us mostly.

[switchskier]

On the bright side, we aren't expected to win in Edinburgh. Underdog is a tag that suits us mostly.

Oy, none of that. We're the underdogs thank you very much, and always will be. I'm much more comfortable with that.

[normanski]

On the bright side, we aren't expected to win in Edinburgh. Underdog is a tag that suits us mostly.

Oy, none of that. We're the underdogs thank you very much, and always will be. I'm much more comfortable with that.

Well every underdog has its day! We’ll see next Saturday who the real underdog is.

[Buggaluggs]

If Scotland match the ferocity they showed against England, they will win. But it is hard to deliver that intensity two weeks in a row. I think Scotland have a let down and Wales win. I also think we have slightly more ruthless finishers and Scotland's achilles heel of not putting chances away might be the difference.

[Sourdust]

If Scotland match the ferocity they showed against England, they will win. But it is hard to deliver that intensity two weeks in a row. I think Scotland have a let down and Wales win. I also think we have slightly more ruthless finishers and Scotland's achilles heel of not putting chances away might be the difference.

Some have said that this was a more Gatland-like performance, in both positive AND negative ways.

Under Gats our strike rate from decent chances was generally very high (I don't have the figures to back that up but I don't expect anyone to disagree!) The problem often was that we simply didn't create enough of those chances. Against Scotland I think we will have to create four or five genuine chances and put three of them away.

Watching the highlights without the tension you can also appreciate how good our tries were. Yes you can criticise Lowe's defending, but how many tries are scored where the defense is perfect? The odd pick & go, maybe?

I agree that history suggests Scotland's perfromance will drop off, but it will have to if we're to have a real chance. If WE let them have 75% possession, we will concede more than 11 points.

[Sandydragon]

We need to keep hold of the ball better next weekend or else Hogg will have a field day. Scotland defended narrowly against England. There will be space if we can work it wide.

[Wallpaperman]

We need to keep hold of the ball better next weekend or else Hogg will have a field day. Scotland defended narrowly against England. There will be space if we can work it wide.

Have watched the first half again - will try and get through the second half later. What strikes me is that Wales looked OK, despite all of Ireland’s possession, up until a minute or two before conceding the penalty to make it 6-6, after about 35 minutes. After that the bottom dropped out of them, (and Ireland went for it) conceding a try from their own line out about 90 seconds later, losing Tomos Williams and conceding 2 penalties for holding on to the ball after becoming isolated. Real headless chicken stuff, and it was a relief when Sexton kicked the ball off for half time.

I think there was a Gatland era tactic of keeping the ball in play, and in those few minutes before the try Wales had the ball a couple of times and kicked long, but infield. I know the idea would have been to tire out the 14 men, but it backfired. If half time is approaching, and they are under the cosh, I would have been a lot happier if they had kicked the ball out. It would have broken Ireland’s rhythm. Poor as the Welsh lineout was, Beard also nicked a couple of their throws.

[normanski]

We need to keep hold of the ball better next weekend or else Hogg will have a field day. Scotland defended narrowly against England. There will be space if we can work it wide.

Have watched the first half again - will try and get through the second half later. What strikes me is that Wales looked OK, despite all of Ireland’s possession, up until a minute or two before conceding the penalty to make it 6-6, after about 35 minutes. After that the bottom dropped out of them, (and Ireland went for it) conceding a try from their own line out about 90 seconds later, losing Tomos Williams and conceding 2 penalties for holding on to the ball after becoming isolated. Real headless chicken stuff, and it was a relief when Sexton kicked the ball off for half time.

I think there was a Gatland era tactic of keeping the ball in play, and in those few minutes before the try Wales had the ball a couple of times and kicked long, but infield. I know the idea would have been to tire out the 14 men, but it backfired. If half time is approaching, and they are under the cosh, I would have been a lot happier if they had kicked the ball out. It would have broken Ireland’s rhythm. Poor as the Welsh lineout was, Beard also nicked a couple of their throws.

And the Irish try resulted from a missed tackle by Tips on the 22. Up to that point we had been absorbing the pressure well and if the tackle had been made we’d have probably gone in level at half time.

We didn’t really give them a sniff of a try there afterwards despite their absolute head-on pressure. We won the second half 15-3 and it would have meant we would have won the game by a more comfortable margin.

As one commentator pointed out today, a 14 man Ireland beat South Africa at home five years ago so they have good form playing one man down.

The more we review the game the more we will find that is was more of a positive performance than we first thought.

[Sandydragon]

And the Irish try came from a lost line out. Defensively, a few of our players failed to push up so whilst it was Tips who missed the tackle, collectively we looked like we were lacking concentration for those few minutes.

The second half we did win 15-3 which is a far more comfortable scoreline than the match felt at times, but we stopped giving away penalties at the breakdown (until the end) so as much as the Irish huffed and puffed, we were able to manage it.

We also had a 100% conversion rate of opportunities to tries so that too is a real positive. Both tries well taken and a result of good Welsh pressure and handling.

[normanski]

Nobody thinks we have much of a chance of a win onSaturday but I think there were enough positive green shoots to start the momentum going our way.

It could be hell of a game - they usually are at Murrayfield - and I hope that rugby wins in the end and the game is not decided by red card.

Keep the line out stats closer to 95%, hold steady and stable in the scrums, maintain discipline at the breakdown and we’re in with a chance.

[Wallpaperman]

Nobody thinks we have much of a chance of a win onSaturday but I think there were enough positive green shoots to start the momentum going our way.

It could be hell of a game - they usually are at Murrayfield - and I hope that rugby wins in the end and the game is not decided by red card.

Keep the line out stats closer to 95%, hold steady and stable in the scrums, maintain discipline at the breakdown and we’re in with a chance.

Scotland will be very confident after the job they did at Twickenham, and rightly so. Also, they will remember the win at Llanelli a few months ago. Since then they have added a couple of excellent prospects to their backline in Redpath and Van der Merwe.

I think Wales will be much better than they were in Llanelli. Wyn Jones and Ken Owens will be in the front row (in place of Care and Elias), and Navidi and Tipuric will be back on the flanks (for Lewis-Hughes and James Davies). Hopefully they will have got some of the nerves out of their system after beating Ireland, and can go and put in a really strong performance on Saturday.

Wales managed to pinch a couple of Ireland’s lineouts on Sunday, and were very close to nicking 2 or 3 more. They should compete on Scotland’s lineout throws this week, and look at how England were able to put pressure on Ali Price at the breakdown. I’ve got a feeling that Gareth Davies will be looking to redeem himself after his bizarre chip through that gave Ireland the chance to come back on Sunday, when the game should have been dead. We’ll probably forgive him in hindsight as it made for a very exciting finish !

[Son of Mathonwy]

On paper there's no way the team that make England look clueless at Twickenham is going to lose, at home, to the team that struggled to beat 14-man Ireland.

However. It's Wales and Scotland, and we do not fear the Scots. They struggled to make their massive possession dominance show up on the scoreboard on Saturday. We have most of our best players available again and playing well. We just (?) need to 1) sort out the line out, so it's not a complete liability and 2) NOT kick it long to Hogg. Russell is as likely to ruin their day as he is to ruin ours, he's a lottery. We'll have two high-ball experts in Biggar and Sanjay. And Sanjay a player who can make something out of nothing.

They will be tough, especially at a barely above freezing Murrayfield, but we ought to win. I feel more confident about this than about last week.

[normanski]

Exciting finish but no good for my well-being!! He does have strong motivation for redemption on Saturday.

[Wallpaperman]

Nobody thinks we have much of a chance of a win onSaturday but I think there were enough positive green shoots to start the momentum going our way.

It could be hell of a game - they usually are at Murrayfield - and I hope that rugby wins in the end and the game is not decided by red card.

Keep the line out stats closer to 95%, hold steady and stable in the scrums, maintain discipline at the breakdown and we’re in with a chance.

Sorry for the second reply - I pressed ‘submit’ too soon. One other green shoot is that Wales were able to live with the intensity that Ireland had. I watched the Munster v Leinster game a few weeks ago, and thought that either of those teams would have blasted any of the Welsh regions off the park (although I think the Ospreys will be a top table side again soon). Based on that game I thought at the time that Wales would be in for a bit of a thumping, but instead they won, whatever the circumstances.

[normanski]

On paper there's no way the team that make England look clueless at Twickenham is going to lose, at home, to the team that struggled to beat 14-man Ireland.

However. It's Wales and Scotland, and we do not fear the Scots. They struggled to make their massive possession dominance show up on the scoreboard on Saturday. We have most of our best players available again and playing well. We just (?) need to 1) sort out the line out, so it's not a complete liability and 2) NOT kick it long to Hogg. Russell is as likely to ruin their day as he is to ruin ours, he's a lottery. We'll have two high-ball experts in Biggar and Sanjay. And Sanjay a player who can make something out of nothing.

They will be tough, especially at a barely above freezing Murrayfield, but we ought to win. I feel more confident about this than about last week.

Well I was confident that we would beat Ireland (my forecast 20-12 to Wales) and I’m confident that we will just sneak by Scotland.

The Dragon is starting to stir and two years ago we were very much in the same position - dead and buried at half-time against France in our first game but from that moment on we gradually built momentum through the championship.

Scotland are no pushover but I think we’re now starting to see patterns of play coming together, not smoothly but in short bursts.

On Saturday we need to put them all together both in defence and attack.

[Numbers]

On paper there's no way the team that make England look clueless at Twickenham is going to lose, at home, to the team that struggled to beat 14-man Ireland.

However. It's Wales and Scotland, and we do not fear the Scots. They struggled to make their massive possession dominance show up on the scoreboard on Saturday. We have most of our best players available again and playing well. We just (?) need to 1) sort out the line out, so it's not a complete liability and 2) NOT kick it long to Hogg. Russell is as likely to ruin their day as he is to ruin ours, he's a lottery. We'll have two high-ball experts in Biggar and Sanjay. And Sanjay a player who can make something out of nothing.

They will be tough, especially at a barely above freezing Murrayfield, but we ought to win. I feel more confident about this than about last week.

Well I was confident that we would beat Ireland (my forecast 20-12 to Wales) and I’m confident that we will just sneak by Scotland.

The Dragon is starting to stir and two years ago we were very much in the same position - dead and buried at half-time against France in our first game but from that moment on we gradually built momentum through the championship.

Scotland are no pushover but I think we’re now starting to see patterns of play coming together, not smoothly but in short bursts.

On Saturday we need to put them all together both in defence and attack.

Yeah, we got to the edge against Ireland a few times which was pleasing, it'll be interesting to see who we have in the centres on Saturday, I'm praying for Kieron Williams to get called up.

[Sandydragon]

Scotland aren't invincible and we can beat them. We had an AI to forgot and at times on Sunday it was painful. Equally, at times it was very good. Can Scotland be consistent? We shall see, but its too soon for anyone to be writing us off.

[Mikey Brown]

Scotland aren't invincible and we can beat them. We had an AI to forgot and at times on Sunday it was painful. Equally, at times it was very good. Can Scotland be consistent? We shall see, but its too soon for anyone to be writing us off.

Jesus christ. Lol. You guys talk a lot about your shared manic Welsh doom-brain but this is fantastic.

[Sandydragon]

Scotland aren't invincible and we can beat them. We had an AI to forgot and at times on Sunday it was painful. Equally, at times it was very good. Can Scotland be consistent? We shall see, but its too soon for anyone to be writing us off.

Jesus christ. Lol. You guys talk a lot about your shared manic Welsh doom-brain but this is fantastic.

I said can, not will.

[normanski]

Scotland aren't invincible and we can beat them. We had an AI to forgot and at times on Sunday it was painful. Equally, at times it was very good. Can Scotland be consistent? We shall see, but its too soon for anyone to be writing us off.

Jesus christ. Lol. You guys talk a lot about your shared manic Welsh doom-brain but this is fantastic.

I said can, not will.

It’s Mike trying his best to wind us up. He really loves the Welsh and would have loved to have been born in the valleys.