Wales' Autumn Campaign

[Sandydragon]

Its really strange writing this, as normally we would happily take 2 from 4 in the AIs, where we have historically failed to win at all, even during the Gatland era. Putting the New Zealand game to one side, which I think we always knew would be painful) a narrow loss to the World Champions, a win over Australia (however narrow) and (on paper) an emphatic win over the Fijians is something we would have taken. Maybe not enough to hang out the bunting and call it a success, but certainly not a failure. But this still feels like a failed campaign.

Positives.
The return to the team of Ellis Jenkins after far too long away and the emergence of Basham both fit firmly in here.

I'd also put McNicoll as a positive as he has finally looked more at home in an international team. I did have my doubts originally.

Priestland still has what it takes.

LRZ is still incredibly quick and that try was probably the highlight moment of our campaign.

We won 2 games.

Negatives.
Our scrum is a mess. Even with Francis and Jones starting as props, its really struggling. This needs serious attention otherwise the six nations will be painful to watch.

Lineout had its moments although we sorted that mid campaign, although its far from being a strength.

Physicality. I felt we had it in the Bokke game, but then we were far less dominant against Fiji and Australia.

Attack. What the hell is the plan? Fling it wide and hope for LRZ or Adams to do something on their own? Or Halaholo's twinkling feet? Its very cumbersome at the moment and we are struggling to break down defences.

Composure. We played the last 2 games against 14 men for the most part. Yet did we play those games in a way designed to maximise that advantage? Having secured a lead against the Aussies we then seemed determined to throw the ball about and give them every opportunity to regain the lead.

Overall.

It feels like we got out of jail and having seen Ireland and France beat the All Blacks in some style, plus of course we have England away, this could be a year where we pray for home wins over Scotland (no longer a given) and Italy (thankfully awful) to avoid the wooden spoon. I'm also not sure how much weight to put on the argument that we were missing over a team of players. Looking at yesterdays team:

1. First choice last season and a British Lion
2. 2nd or 3rd Choice
3. First choice last season
4. First choice last season and a British Lion
5. 3rd choice lock
Flankers. Definitely a few layers below the expected pecking order. I'd have expected Tipuric, Moriarty, Botham at least to feature before Jenkins (given recent injury) and Basham.
8. 2nd choice.
9. First choice I'd argue
10. First choice
11. First choice
Centres. What are our first choice centres these days? We had JD2, Jonny Williams, Halaholo and Tompkins available yesterday, plus the likes of Scott Williams outside of the squad. The only big name missing is North.
14. First choice
15. First choice

OK, there is a good argument for disruption, but lets not pretend that we were playing our second team yesterday. We are missing our normal backrow, Owens (who we need to find a replacement for anyway) and AWJ (ditto). Despite trying to be a positive as possible, I have to admit to not looking forward to the Six Nations. To be competitive, our pack needs to front up again in a big way and we need to find some way for our attack to break down the opposition.

[Son of Mathonwy]

The key players we're really missing are:
Owens
AWJ
Navidi/Moriarty (as long as we have one of them)
North (although we have plenty of options here, we miss his combination of size and speed)

Not quite as great an impact are:
Tipuric (because Basham brings something else ie more direct ball carrying)
Faletau (because Wainwright is pretty effective)

I hope these (and the experience given to many newcomers) are a good enough excuse for our flawed (but overall, successful) campaign.

But I'm not totally convinced, because we often look so short of ideas when in possession. Why can't we be a little less predictable? Can't we change the angle of attack or have more than one attacking line?

Maybe we'll be surprised (again) in the 6N. I still have some confidence in the coaches but I would feel better if we looked like having a 1 or 2 man advantage was actually an advantage.

[normanski]

Sandy - good summary and one further positive is the number of youngsters given a run out and gaining experience over the autumn.

Our bench yesterday did not bristle with first/second choice players and probably Dillon Lewis, Gareth Davies and Rhys Priestland were the most experienced but even they could be considered way down the picking list.

I wonder how many of our injured, returning stars will be on top form when they come back and are able to make the grade. Long term injury mostly takes a detrimental effect on form and class.

Pivac is doing the right thing by blooding as many young prospects as possible. He might also want to refresh his coaching team and bring in a top scrum doctor and defence coach.

[Sourdust]

It is weird. One score behind the world champs, beat Australia, and yet we feel quite flat.

I just watched the second half of Ireland v Argetntina and it's so depressing. Ireland look like they're playing an entirely different game to us. Dominant, aggressive, confident, and when the other team gets a card they immediately post another 20 points. Argentina were pretty dreadful, but I'd bet we'd have been huffing and puffing to put them away in the final moments.

And yet, experience tells us that the 6N will be different. It always is. Ireland and England always look miles better than us in November, yet in March we're as often as not in the mix or better. I can't explain that.

But right now we're just no fun to watch, even when we're winning.

As to the "strength in depth" argument; while there have been a few obvious finds this time, have there really been that many? Who really looks like a test player now, who didn't in April? Basham, Elias... Tompkins, maybe? Otherwise there's a string of players who we've blooded, but still don't know enough about to fully trust. And it's Dublin next up... :-/

[Sandydragon]

That trip to Dublin isn’t one I’m looking forward to! The Irish will rightly be firm favourites.

We definitely need a scrum doctor. Something isn’t ticking right there at the moment even with first choice players.

I’d be interesting in what you guys think is our first choice centre partnership? All have their strengths but it’s an interesting choice to make.

I don’t like the Halaholo and Tompkins combination, although individually both good players and did well enough this autumn. JD2 brings a lot of experience, a strong left boot and great defence. Probably more of a 12 these days. North brings us gainline strengths and makes space for others. Then of course there are the likes of Scott Williams, Jonny Williams and a host of others.

I think, although it could be a horses for courses thing, that JD2 and North to start brings power and experience, plus a good amount of attacking threat, with Halaholo on the bench to upset a tiring defence. But whatever 2 we pick some good players miss out.

I’m kind of assuming that the North at 13 selection continues since otherwise we would need to drop LRZ (he has a few things to learn but the boy is really dangerous), or Adams (our best winger technically).

[Son of Mathonwy]

Somehow we seem to find parity with the Irish when we play them, so I'm not too worried. They'll be favourites but not by much (for me).

Yeah, centres have to be <someone> and North. But who is the someone at 12? On what we've just seen I'd pick Tompkins, but would be happy with Johnny or Scott. If I were Pivac I'd take a close look at club form at the time.

Agreed on the Tompkins/Halaholo combo - they're too similar for my liking. As for JD2 he really needs to make a regional return to form before getting back into the Welsh team.

[Sourdust]

The centres are all decent but yes, the balance is the thing. I agree on North 'cos he has to be in the XV (if fit), but we can't really afford to lose either of our current wingers (if fit). Tompkins seems the obvious complement to him. He's the only option who seems to have anything like the ball skills of vintage-era Foxy. Haloholo is something welcomely different but - unfortnately for him - he looks every inch the perfect imact sub. Not sure abou the Williams boys, Scott seems so fragile and Johnny really hasn't had a fair crack yet. I guess it will come down to form in February, but at least we know there are options now that don't actually scare us!

[Sandydragon]

The centres are all decent but yes, the balance is the thing. I agree on North 'cos he has to be in the XV (if fit), but we can't really afford to lose either of our current wingers (if fit). Tompkins seems the obvious complement to him. He's the only option who seems to have anything like the ball skills of vintage-era Foxy. Haloholo is something welcomely different but - unfortnately for him - he looks every inch the perfect imact sub. Not sure abou the Williams boys, Scott seems so fragile and Johnny really hasn't had a fair crack yet. I guess it will come down to form in February, but at least we know there are options now that don't actually scare us!

We do actually have reasonable depth there for a change, even if a world class centre partnership seems a bit of a stretch at the moment. I do think Halaholo works best as an impact sub. He seemed to tire a bit on Saturday which is when the mistakes crept into his game. But he is undoubtedly talented and is a great player to trouble a tired defence. North has to be there. As you say, Tompkins has the all round game to complement North so that could be a very good partnership if given some game time.


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[normanski]

One further point to make - the WRU should not organise a match with a top five side outside the test window. I know they are strapped for cash but surely it would have been better to start the series with a game against someone like Tonga. We always start the test series slowly and a game against a more lowly side would help to get the established players up to speed and still be an opportunity to blood newcomers.

I applaud the ambition to play the very top sides but this was a brutal series and we’re counting the cost in terms of injuries and lack of good depth.

I just wonder how many of our injured established players will come back for the 6N and still be in peak condition.

[Sandydragon]

One further point to make - the WRU should not organise a match with a top five side outside the test window. I know they are strapped for cash but surely it would have been better to start the series with a game against someone like Tonga. We always start the test series slowly and a game against a more lowly side would help to get the established players up to speed and still be an opportunity to blood newcomers.

I applaud the ambition to play the very top sides but this was a brutal series and we’re counting the cost in terms of injuries and lack of good depth.

I just wonder how many of our injured established players will come back for the 6N and still be in peak condition.

Amen to that!!


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[Sourdust]

One further point to make - the WRU should not organise a match with a top five side outside the test window. I know they are strapped for cash but surely it would have been better to start the series with a game against someone like Tonga. We always start the test series slowly and a game against a more lowly side would help to get the established players up to speed and still be an opportunity to blood newcomers.

I applaud the ambition to play the very top sides but this was a brutal series and we’re counting the cost in terms of injuries and lack of good depth.

I just wonder how many of our injured established players will come back for the 6N and still be in peak condition.

I don't think anyone would argue with that.

We understand the WRU needs the cash; but they'd get the same cash for a match against Japan, without exposing our under-20s to the Death Star.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Far better we start the Autumn with a lower ranked team, but it depends who's available. Better the NZ match than no match at all.

[MrK]

Pivacs success at the scarlets centred on counter attacking rugby, quick ball and turnovers .

He’s not picking players who suit that game, either by availability or choice .

Evans and smith at loosehead, parry and Owens at hooker and brown at 3 all come into the squad for me .

I’m not convinced of the beard / rowland combination but I don’t think we have much choice .

Beirne was a huge 5/6 player for pivac, he’s looking for seb/ Christ to fill that void .

I’m the meantime , hopefully moriaty, Tipuric and Faletau will be back soon .

At 10, much as I love biggars commitment , the game we want to play is more suited to priestland, anscombe and date I say it … Patchell.

Halaholo or Tompkins will start at 12 and north 13 .

Adam’s and Williams pick themselves , I’d actually have Holmes/mcnicoll and Zammit battling it out for the other staring and bench back 3 positions .

My 23 would be

Williams, McNicol, North, Halaholo, Adam’s , Priestland, Williams
Evans, Owens, Francis, Beard, Rowland, Moriaty, Botham , Faletau

Parry, Smith, Lewis, seb, Jenkins , Davies , Patch, Davies

Additional squad

Carre
Elias
Brown
Carter , Christ
Tipuric, wainwright, basham,
Hardy
Anscombe
Tompkins, Williams
Holmes, Zammit