World Rankings Update

[Puja]

I'm mostly resurrecting this thread to note that Australia are now officially worse than Italy after the weekend, and have reached a new low of 10th in the world. I don't think they'll stay there for long, as I think Schmidt is going to do a massive rebuilding job (and their Super Rugby results are looking good so far!), but it's amusing to laugh at their pain.

Actually, a quick check with the calculator says that they're unlikely to stay in 10th for more than a week - the loser of Wales vs Italy drop behind them (unless there's a draw). Anything other than a Wales win means Italy are no longer the lowest ranked 6N side.

From other perspectives, we're now safe in 5th (barring Ireland and us both losing by >16), but can overtake France with a win on Saturday. Scotland can neither rise nor fall (barring the above outre scenario), but Ireland need to win to hold onto 2nd ahead of NZ.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

So, you're saying, Lynagh chose the stronger of his non-England options?

[Banquo]

So, you're saying, Lynagh chose the stronger of his non-England options?

On a serious note, there has to be a serious risk of Aussie RU disappearing, despite Super Rugby results- participation has apparently dropped off an even steeper cliff than ours in the men's game

[Puja]

So, you're saying, Lynagh chose the stronger of his non-England options?

On a serious note, there has to be a serious risk of Aussie RU disappearing, despite Super Rugby results- participation has apparently dropped off an even steeper cliff than ours in the men's game

True - amusing though this is for the short term, for the long term the next few years are make-or-break for the game there. They need to get a win against New Zealand somehow, cause that's the game the casual Aussie fan knows about and cares about. If the Wallabies start to win again, the fans will come flocking back - they've just been drained by years of defeat after defeat and getting to the stage where losing to Portugal became a real risk.

I think they'll be my second team to cheer for over the next few years - rugby needs a strong Australia to survive.

Puja

[Banquo]

So, you're saying, Lynagh chose the stronger of his non-England options?

On a serious note, there has to be a serious risk of Aussie RU disappearing, despite Super Rugby results- participation has apparently dropped off an even steeper cliff than ours in the men's game

True - amusing though this is for the short term, for the long term the next few years are make-or-break for the game there. They need to get a win against New Zealand somehow, cause that's the game the casual Aussie fan knows about and cares about. If the Wallabies start to win again, the fans will come flocking back - they've just been drained by years of defeat after defeat and getting to the stage where losing to Portugal became a real risk.

I think they'll be my second team to cheer for over the next few years - rugby needs a strong Australia to survive.

Puja

There was an emergency IRB meeting there last month I hear.

[Oakboy]

When do we play Australia next? I read that our next three fixtures after the 6N are all against NZ - two away on tour and the first AI. Can anyone confirm that? The only other AI fixture I've seen mentioned is Japan (and Jones!).

[Puja]

When do we play Australia next? I read that our next three fixtures after the 6N are all against NZ - two away on tour and the first AI. Can anyone confirm that? The only other AI fixture I've seen mentioned is Japan (and Jones!).

We're playing Japan first (in Japan), then 2 tests in NZ, then AIs are NZ, Australia, South Africa, Japan.

Puja

[Oakboy]

When do we play Australia next? I read that our next three fixtures after the 6N are all against NZ - two away on tour and the first AI. Can anyone confirm that? The only other AI fixture I've seen mentioned is Japan (and Jones!).

We're playing Japan first (in Japan), then 2 tests in NZ, then AIs are NZ, Australia, South Africa, Japan.

Puja

Cheers.

[Puja]

Two interesting notes from the rankings movements today: England are officially a better team than Scotland again, at least until tomorrow, and Wales are now officially worse than Georgia.

Puja

[Slater582]

Two interesting notes from the rankings movements today: England are officially a better team than Scotland again, at least until tomorrow, and Wales are now officially worse than Georgia.

Puja

Does the current low ranking for Wales mean a loss to them is more damaging to World Ranking than usual?

[Puja]

Two interesting notes from the rankings movements today: England are officially a better team than Scotland again, at least until tomorrow, and Wales are now officially worse than Georgia.

Puja

Does the current low ranking for Wales mean a loss to them is more damaging to World Ranking than usual?

It does, but with the game being away from home, it's not quite at the maximum that the points transfer can cap out at. We will only drop a position if we lose and Scotland win against France though (which would cap out at the highest points transfer possible in the system).

To emphasise, we are currently in 6th position and it is critical that we stay in the top 6 by the end of the year, as that is when the RWC seedings and draw are being done, so the team that finishes 7th could be in a pool with one of NZ/SA/Fra/Ire.

Puja

[Slater582]

Expect Ireland and France will be tough to beat on their own patch in the Autumn so England probably won't overtake them.

Wonder if ranking considerations is partly why Ireland chose to play Georgia and Portugal this summer rather than going to South America or the Pacific Islands.

Looks like England will be in a battle with Australia, Argentina, Scotland and Fiji for those last couple of top seed places. And with the exception of Scotland the other trio are all coming to Twickenham later this year.

[pjm1]

At the moment I think there is too big a gap to close unless we have an absolute shocker (like losing 3 games).

For Aus and Arg. The RC is obviously key. Best case scenario for the home nations is that SA and NZ smash the other two in all their games. The opposite would have the double whammy of giving the chasers more ranking points and reducing what we (home nations) might gain for any wins against the top two, oh and increasing the points damage if we lose those tougher game(s).

I am predicting a similar result with NZ - a close loss, and a narrow win against Aus, but for me that’s the toughest to call as they play a style we now struggle with. On the face of it, that should be enough to keep us top 6…

[Puja]

At the moment I think there is too big a gap to close unless we have an absolute shocker (like losing 3 games).

For Aus and Arg. The RC is obviously key. Best case scenario for the home nations is that SA and NZ smash the other two in all their games. The opposite would have the double whammy of giving the chasers more ranking points and reducing what we (home nations) might gain for any wins against the top two, oh and increasing the points damage if we lose those tougher game(s).

I am predicting a similar result with NZ - a close loss, and a narrow win against Aus, but for me that’s the toughest to call as they play a style we now struggle with. On the face of it, that should be enough to keep us top 6…

Just sat and worked it out - as things stand (so, not taking RC into account), we would have to either lose all four AIs, or lose against Aus/NZ/Arg with a win against Fiji, in order for us to drop outside of the top 6. Not that I'd say that's impossible, but if it does happen, we wouldn't deserve to be in the top 6 anyway.

I actually think there's a distinct possibility of a clean sweep the other way. Australia are eminently beatable anyway and will have a new coach and players missing with it being outside of the window, Fiji are a good team but one we should be beating, NZ are not the force of old, and we already know we can beat Argentina. We should be aiming for 4/4.

Puja

[Scrumhead]

Absolutely. 4/4 definitely feels achievable and the sequence of games is pretty favourable too with NZ third. I’d like to think two decent wins over Australia and Fiji would be good prep for having a good crack at NZ.

I’m not saying it’s a given we’ll beat Australia, Fiji and Argentina but right now it feels like that ought to be the minimum expectation.